The critical minerals driving the next century of technology are concentrated in Latin America. The risks between acquisition and production are not on any spreadsheet. We close that gap.
You've identified an asset — a copper concession in Sonora, a lithium deposit in Atacama, a gold mine in Antioquia. Your financial model is clean. What it doesn't show: who controls movement between the mine and the port, which armed group has historical presence in the municipality, whether the local government has the institutional capacity to honor the concession, and what happens to your permitting framework if the political situation shifts. We produce the threat and security assessment that goes into the diligence package — the piece your bank and your lawyers can't write.
Supply chain disruption in Latin American mining doesn't look like a shipping delay. It looks like a 72-hour road blockade organized by a community under pressure from an armed group, or an extortion demand that shuts down a convoy, or a strike sustained by criminal actors who have nothing to do with the workers' actual grievances. We monitor the signals that precede these events — conflict actor movements, political pressure on community leaders, armed group territorial shifts — and flag them before they become force majeure.
For high-stakes decisions with a binary structure — proceed or don't, enter now or wait, deploy capital here or redeploy — we build a probability framework. Bayesian scenario modeling, inflection indicators, probability distributions across 3-5 outcomes, and the negotiation and structuring angles your team hasn't considered. This is the engagement for decisions above $10M where the intelligence gap between what your bank knows and what's actually happening on the ground is the difference between a good deal and a costly one.
From today's Centinela Brief — signals meeting the Decision Intelligence threshold for mining and extractive sector exposure.
ELN and AGC territorial overlap intensifying around gold mining corridor. Extortion demands on transport routes reported at highest levels since 2023.
U.S. Treasury reviewing additional sanctions on Nicaraguan mining concessions. Operators with exposure should assess secondary sanctions risk now.
OFAC general license expiration approaching. Mining-adjacent operations tied to PDVSA subsidiaries require compliance review before renewal window closes.
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Not a country risk rating. Not a bank analyst's macro view. Operational intelligence from someone who has been there.