Latin America Daily Security Brief

The post-Maduro transition remains the region's most consequential open variable. Reuters reported April 9 that energy companies evaluating Venezuelan investments are in a holding pattern, waiting for PDVSA and the oil ministry to release new contract models governing how firms can continue, expand, or initiate operations. Two sources close to the process confirmed no timeline has been given.

Shell separately told Reuters it plans to begin natural gas output in 2027 from the offshore Loran-Manatee field, which straddles the Venezuela-Trinidad border. The announcement from NGC Chairman Gerald Ramdeen signals at least some operators are moving forward on long-lead projects despite the political uncertainty — but Loran-Manatee is a special case with a Trinidad anchor, not representative of broader FDI appetite.

Trump stated publicly that the US intends to 'run' Venezuela and monetize its oil reserves following Maduro's capture by US special forces on January 3. The oil blockade that followed has cut Venezuela's export revenue sharply, and analysts — including Charles Larratt-Smith, cited by Cuban media — argue the Venezuela operation was explicitly designed as a first step toward destabilizing Havana.

US military strikes under Operation Southern Spear have disrupted specific Caribbean trafficking routes, according to InSight Crime's investigation published this week. However, InSight Crime finds traffickers have already adapted, rerouting through alternative corridors, and Venezuela remains a critical node in cocaine flows toward Europe and the US despite the interdiction pressure.

The oil blockade's secondary effects are radiating outward. Cuba, which depended heavily on Venezuelan oil subsidies, is now in the grip of an energy and economic crisis that multiple analysts describe as potentially more severe than the 1990s Special Period following Soviet collapse.

Cuba's crisis is accelerating. Multiple analysts writing this week describe the country's energy collapse, economic contraction, and rising protests as a confluence with no clear floor. The fracturing of the Cuba-Venezuela relationship — built by Fidel Castro and Hugo Chávez — has removed the primary subsidy lifeline that kept the regime afloat for two decades.

On March 13, President Miguel Díaz-Canel held talks framed as a search for 'solutions,' and Cuba agreed to release 51 political prisoners in what appears to be a gesture toward easing US pressure. The Globe and Mail and Time Magazine have both this week published analysis suggesting the regime faces an existential test.

InSight Crime's April 10 'On the Radar' feature notes that the US cocaine-trafficking crackdown in the Caribbean — while tactically disruptive — has not severed the flows that transit through Cuba-adjacent waters. For Havana, the loss of Venezuelan oil hits harder than any interdiction campaign.

Peru votes April 12 — 48 hours from now. Reuters reports a record-breaking field of candidates facing voters whose top concerns are insecurity (68% per Ipsos), corruption (67%), and political instability (36%). No president has completed a full term in over a decade.

Security has driven candidates to adopt Bukele-style platforms: proposals include deploying troops to crime hotspots, reinstating the death penalty, withdrawing from international human rights courts, and creating anonymous magistrates for criminal cases. Al Jazeera reports these hardline positions reflect a genuine public mandate, not just political theater.

Separately, Peru's government has declared a 60-day state of emergency in four districts of Tacna on the Chilean border, deploying military forces to counter drug trafficking, migrant smuggling, human trafficking, and arms flows. The move signals that Lima views the southern border as a secondary front alongside the northern coca-producing regions.

Erick Valencia-Salazar, known as 'El 85,' pleaded guilty April 9 in a US federal court to drug conspiracy charges. El 85 co-founded CJNG alongside Nemesio 'El Mencho' Oseguera Cervantes, supplied weapons to the Milenio Cartel's gunmen in the organization's early years, and later recruited hundreds of CJNG members. DEA Administrator Terrance Cole called him one of the architects of CJNG's violent business model.

InSight Crime's latest 'On the Radar' feature examines whether crackdowns actually work, using CJNG as the test case. Their analysis finds that even with El Mencho killed in February and now El 85 in US custody, the cocaine trade has not meaningfully contracted — supply chains and command structures have adapted faster than enforcement pressure can close them.

InSight Crime also published this week a detailed profile of Guadalupe Fernández Valencia, alias 'La Patrona,' identified as the Sinaloa Cartel's highest-ranking woman. She served as the intersection point between northbound narcotics and southbound cash flows as US prosecutors closed in on the cartel's inner circle in the late 2010s. El País reports a 41-year-old is now being identified by Mexico and the US as the possible successor to the Sinaloa leadership.

A joint Costa Rica-DEA operation arrested 11 people with confirmed Sinaloa Cartel ties — a reminder that Sinaloa's footprint extends well into Central America even as the cartel manages internal succession pressure.

Ecuador announced it will raise tariffs on Colombian goods from 50% to 100%, the sharpest escalation yet in the bilateral commercial-security dispute that began in January 2026. President Noboa framed the original tariffs not as trade measures but as a 'security fee' to cover Ecuador's border-control costs — the doubling signals Quito believes Bogotá has not moved fast enough.

Ecuador extradited alias 'Mison,' a narco trafficking boss with documented links to the Tren de Aragua, to Colombia. The case illustrates how Venezuela-origin criminal structures have embedded themselves into Ecuador's criminal ecosystem — Tren de Aragua now interacts with local Ecuadorian networks, complicating the security picture well beyond domestic gangs.

Authorities transferred 62 high-danger female inmates — including figures linked to major organized crime cases — to La Roca, Ecuador's maximum-security facility designed specifically for high-risk criminal organization members. The transfer was conducted under joint police-military escort.

In Guayaquil, four individuals were arrested in connection with the GDOT 'Tiguerones' criminal group. A separate triple homicide in Los Ríos province — including a welder among the victims — is being investigated as an organized crime settling of scores.

Ecuador signed a cooperation agreement with the European Union and Europol earlier this month to bolster its counter-organized crime capacity, according to InSight Crime. The EU partnership reflects Quito's recognition that domestic security resources alone are insufficient against transnational networks.

April 9 was Colombia's National Day of Memory and Solidarity with Conflict Victims. Official figures now show 10,230,330 Colombians registered as conflict victims — a number that exceeds Bogotá's population. Forced displacement leads the list of harms, and women represent the majority of victims. A joint Congressional session to honor victims was abandoned for lack of quorum, drawing sharp criticism from displaced persons' organizations.

Active conflict continues despite the commemorations. An Uribista congressman told Infobae that the ELN and FARC dissident factions — specifically the Jaime Martínez group and Iván Mordisco's factions — are still taking military and police hostages in Cauca and Guaviare. The Defensoría del Pueblo's own reporting corroborates these accounts.

In Cauca, indigenous Nasa communities face pressure from at least four armed actors simultaneously: the Clan del Golfo, ELN structures, Los Pelusos, and FARC dissidents — with the Sinaloa Cartel reportedly providing financial backing to the latter. The UN has warned that additional military deployments alone will not resolve the Cauca conflict.

The Ecuador-Colombia tariff escalation is generating pushback from Colombian industry. The Andi trade association told local media it makes no sense to make consumers 'the currency of exchange' in a security dispute — but Bogotá has yet to announce concrete border-security measures that would satisfy Quito's demands.

A US federal appeals court overturned the 45-year drug trafficking sentence against former President Juan Orlando Hernández on April 8. Trump had pardoned Hernández last November. Hernández himself framed the ruling as the US justice system 'annulling' his conviction. The reversal removes a major deterrent signal for political-level narco corruption in Central America.

Hernández had been convicted in 2024 in New York on charges that included accepting $1 million from Sinaloa Cartel boss Joaquín 'El Chapo' Guzmán. The appeals reversal — coming alongside the Trump pardon — marks a significant political rehabilitation for a figure whose prosecution had been a landmark in regional anti-impunity efforts.

Costa Rica's security forces, operating jointly with the DEA, dismantled a Sinaloa Cartel structure on April 9, arresting 11 people. The operation confirms that Sinaloa maintains active infrastructure in Costa Rica despite leadership turbulence in Mexico.

Costa Rica's Foreign Ministry designated the IRGC, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis as terrorist organizations — a significant alignment with US and Israeli foreign policy positions and a notable step for a country that maintains no standing army.

Separately, the OIJ (Costa Rica's judicial investigation agency) confirmed that illegal miners operating near the Nicaraguan border in the Crucitas area are working for criminal groups that finance the extraction and coordinate material transport into Nicaragua. Director Michael Soto confirmed the link between environmental crime and organized crime finance.

Argentina's Congress passed a glacier protection reform bill on April 9 with a 137-111 vote. The legislation, backed by President Milei, loosens environmental restrictions to enable mining investment — potentially unlocking over $30 billion in copper, gold, and silver projects. Critics say it sacrifices water resources for short-term capital.

A government decree simultaneously raised top officials' salaries to over eight million pesos per month — roughly $8,900 at the official rate — drawing immediate blowback for contradicting Milei's austerity brand. The Buenos Aires Times reported the decree is fueling debate about whether the 'chainsaw' cuts apply equally across all levels of government.

Pro-union protests outside Congress, depicted in Reuters images this week, show tear gas being deployed against demonstrators — a visual that contrasts sharply with the administration's messaging on economic stabilization.

Paraguayan counter-narcotics forces seized nearly 10 metric tons of marijuana in Amambay department under Operation Escudo Guaraní, an ongoing anti-trafficking campaign active since late 2025. The operation is concentrated in Amambay, which borders Brazil's Mato Grosso do Sul state — a well-documented corridor for southbound cannabis trafficking.

Paraguay's Interior Ministry hosted a DEA-coordinated regional anti-narcotics cooperation meeting in Asunción, drawing representatives from Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and the US. The session focused on intelligence sharing and best practices across the Southern Cone trafficking corridor.

Peru declared a 60-day military emergency in four Tacna border districts to its north — a move Chilean security officials are watching closely given concerns about cross-border criminal spillover into Tarapacá and Antofagasta.

A Chilean prosecutor this week publicly warned that the emerging Bioceanic Corridor — a transcontinental infrastructure route linking Atlantic and Pacific ports — could act as a 'threat multiplier' for organized crime. The corridor connects the Triple Frontier (Paraguay-Argentina-Brazil) directly to northern Chilean port cities, and the prosecutor warned that security infrastructure is well behind the economic development of the project.

Santiago's Interior Ministry announced plans to intervene in 50 'critical neighborhoods' dominated by narco networks before end of 2026, per La Tercera reporting. The initiative reflects growing concern about the domestic consolidation of transnational criminal groups inside Chilean urban areas.

El Salvador: Six foreign nationals — two Ecuadorians, one Colombian, three Mexicans — were sentenced to 12 years in prison for trafficking more than 1,200 kilograms of cocaine. The case illustrates the multinational supply chains moving product through the isthmus.

The US Coast Guard reported that Cutter Escanaba seized over $33 million worth of cocaine in a single interdiction. Operation Southern Spear has now seized more than 215,000 pounds of cocaine and arrested over 160 suspected traffickers since launch, according to DHS.