Cuba's national power grid collapsed entirely overnight, leaving all 11 million residents without electricity — the most acute phase yet of an energy crisis accelerated by Venezuela's oil cutoff and Trump's tariff threats against Cuba's suppliers. Simultaneously, Ecuador launched its largest-ever security operation: 75,000 soldiers and police deployed to four coastal provinces under nightly curfew, with direct U.S. support, as Noboa declares all-out war on cartels despite a 30% murder rate increase under his watch. These two crises — one humanitarian, one security — are the dominant stories in the hemisphere today.
Cuba's national electrical grid collapsed completely on Monday, knocking out power to all 11 million residents across the island, according to AP. The blackout is the most severe single event in a months-long energy spiral that has already forced hospitals to delay tens of thousands of medical procedures.
The immediate trigger is fuel starvation. President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed publicly that Cuba has received no oil deliveries for over three months. Venezuela — historically Cuba's primary supplier — stopped shipments after the U.S. arrested former President Nicolás Maduro in January and warned of secondary tariffs against any country selling oil to Havana.
Trump told reporters Monday he would have 'the honor' of taking Cuba, and U.S. officials have reportedly told Cuban negotiators that Díaz-Canel 'must go' as a precondition for any sanctions relief, per News18. Senate Democrats, led by Ruben Gallego, Tim Kaine, and Adam Schiff, introduced legislation Friday to block any military action against the island.
Small protests were reported over the weekend, including a group of demonstrators who lit a bonfire outside a government building in what El País described as the most visible public dissent since the July 2021 uprising. China's foreign ministry reaffirmed support for Havana and pledged to 'provide help to the best of our ability.'
President Daniel Noboa launched what he called a 'war' against criminal organizations Sunday, deploying 75,000 soldiers and police — including more than 30,000 military personnel — to four coastal provinces: Guayas, Los Ríos, El Oro, and Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas. A nightly curfew from 11 p.m. to 5 a.m. runs through March 31, per AP.
The operation is being run with direct U.S. support, according to CBS News. Interior Minister John Reimberg framed the offensive as targeting criminal networks' logistics and finances, not just street-level arrests. In the first night, 253 people were detained for curfew violations.
The military context: Ecuador has operated under a formal 'internal armed conflict' declaration since 2024, and Noboa has now launched multiple states of emergency. Despite this, Ecuador recorded approximately 9,300 homicides in 2025 — a record — and the murder rate rose more than 30% between 2024 and 2025, per El País. The curfew provinces sit along trafficking corridors used to move cocaine through Pacific ports toward Central America, the U.S., and Europe.
Troops also seized a 35-meter narco-submarine hidden in a nature reserve during the operation's early hours, according to reporting cited by AOL.
The U.S. Department of Justice formally charged two top Sinaloa Cartel lieutenants with terrorism and posted $10 million reward offers for information leading to their capture, per Breitbart/Cartel Chronicles. The charges represent the first application of the Trump administration's cartel terrorism designations in a direct prosecution context.
In a separate development from the ongoing post-El Mencho fallout, Mexican federal forces arrested 'El Pepe' — identified as José N. — an CJNG logistics operator accused of transporting El Mencho's partner to Tapalpa, Jalisco on February 22, the day of the operation that killed the cartel leader. The arrest was made without gunfire in Jalisco, per Excélsior.
CJNG's organizational disruption continues. El País reported Monday that Mexican prosecutors have effectively abandoned the Tapalpa crime scene — citing the absence of minimum security conditions in the post-El Mencho environment — raising questions about the integrity of the forensic record.
In Guatemala's western border zone, Guatemalan Army units under 'Operación Cinturón de Fuego' recovered 14 long-barreled weapons and hundreds of rounds of ammunition hidden in sacks near villages along the Mexican frontier, per Infobae. The operation has been running since January 2024 and was reinforced in 2025.
President José Antonio Kast personally oversaw the launch of 'Plan Escudo Fronterizo' at the Chacalluta border crossing — Chile's main entry point from Peru — on Monday, per UPI and La Razón. Army engineers began building trenches and walls at the crossing in the Arica y Parinacota region.
Kast called on political parties to set aside differences and unite around the security agenda. The plan is a response to what his government describes as a migration-linked security crisis, with irregular border crossings from Bolivia and Peru cited as vectors for organized crime entry into northern Chile.
Uruguayan drug trafficking boss Sebastián Marset, 34, appeared in U.S. federal court and was offered a 20-year sentence in exchange for full cooperation with prosecutors, per ABC Color (Paraguay). Marset was transferred to U.S. custody by DEA agents in Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia.
Court documents describe Marset as the head of a transnational cocaine trafficking network that shipped loads of up to 10 metric tons at a time from South America — primarily through Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Brazil — to Belgium, the Netherlands, Portugal, and other European markets. Insight Crime links his organization to Brazil's PCC and Italy's 'Ndrangheta.
Bolivia's vice minister of government Ernesto Justiniano said Marset's capture exposed prior institutional failures that enabled the network, and pledged a 'drastic investigation' to identify and prosecute accomplices, per Bolivian outlet Datos-Bo. Bolivia also assumed the rotating presidency of CLASI (the regional security intelligence body) this week.
Human Rights Watch published a formal report Monday documenting five Salvadoran men — Brandon Sigarán, William Martínez, José Osmín Santos, Irving Quintanilla, and Elmer Escobar González — as effectively forcibly disappeared inside El Salvador's prison system, one year after being deported from the United States on a single flight.
The Trump administration alleges at least some of the deportees are MS-13 members, including César Humberto López Larios ('El Greñas'), a known MS-13 leader. HRW says all five have been cut off from family contact and legal representation for a year, per El País English and Los Angeles Times.
El Salvador's government has not publicly acknowledged the whereabouts or status of the five men.
Panama's national police chief disclosed that the country's current homicide surge is driven by an outright war between two major criminal organizations competing for drug trafficking routes, according to Newsroom Panama. More than 180 active gangs operate in Panama, with the highest concentrations in San Miguelito and Colón.
Authorities confirmed a rising 'contract killing' sector — police maintain a file of individuals who work exclusively as hired killers, a sign of criminal professionalization that mirrors earlier phases of violence in Colombia and Mexico.
Venezuela's oil sector remains the subject of international attention as global prices rise following Middle East instability. Energy analysts cited by ABC News say even with Venezuela's transitional authorities theoretically open to foreign investment, any meaningful production increase would take years — the infrastructure is too degraded for a quick turnaround.
Cuba's oil cutoff is directly tied to Venezuela's political situation. Venezuelan shipments to Havana stopped after Maduro's arrest in January, and the downstream effect — Cuba's grid collapse — is now one of the hemisphere's most visible humanitarian stories.
A Honduran judge granted a U.S. extradition request for Mario Roberto Flores Mejía, wanted by the Philadelphia Municipal Court on charges of murder, kidnapping, and assault, per Honduran judicial sources. The case is routine in procedural terms but signals continued judicial cooperation on extraditions under the current government.
President Bernardo Arévalo reported a 27% reduction in homicides under the state of prevention and is publicly weighing extending the measure, per Guatemalan outlets. The figure, if accurate, is significant — though analysts note that baseline data quality in Guatemala makes percentage claims difficult to verify independently.
Separately, Army units under Operación Cinturón de Fuego recovered weapons and ammunition near the Mexican border (see Mexico section for detail), confirming ongoing cross-border security coordination.
El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele posted a video this week claiming that 'organized crime only exists in Brazil because it is inside the government' — the clip gained significant traction on Brazilian social media, reigniting a domestic debate about institutional corruption and gang territorial control, per CPG Click Petróleo e Gás.
Brazil and the United States conducted a joint military training exercise last weekend involving 15 countries, amid diplomatic tension over Washington's debate about designating Brazilian criminal factions — the PCC and Comando Vermelho — as terrorist organizations, per the same source.
No major new security incidents reported in the last 24 hours. The Colombian Army's 'Operación Días Mejores' — which reportedly used a pop song infiltrated into jungle zones via audio to communicate with hostages — was promoted by Noticias Caracol on Monday, though the operational details and timeline remain unclear.
Background context: Colombia's Ombudsman's office issued a warning as recently as March 14 about extreme risk to indigenous communities in Guainía department, where ELN and FARC dissident factions are clashing for territorial control.
HIGH. Post-El Mencho instability in Jalisco persists with CJNG's command structure under active disruption. The new U.S. terrorism charges against Sinaloa lieutenants signal an escalation in legal pressure. Watch for cartel retaliation against security forces and internal power struggles within CJNG.
ELEVATED. Government-reported homicide reductions under the state of prevention are encouraging but unverified. Cross-border weapons seizures near the Mexican frontier show cartels are still active in the corridor. Arévalo faces pressure to extend or formalize emergency security measures.
MODERATE. No significant developments in the last 24 hours. Belize remains a transit corridor for narcotics moving north but no acute incidents reported.
MODERATE. Extradition cooperation with the U.S. remains functional. No major security incidents in the last 24 hours. Organized crime activity in northern urban centers continues at baseline levels.
ELEVATED. The forced disappearance documentation of five U.S. deportees in Bukele's prison system has drawn renewed international scrutiny. Relations with Washington remain close operationally, but the HRW findings create legal and diplomatic friction. Watch for further international legal challenges.
ELEVATED. The Ortega government continues documented transnational repression against exiled dissidents, per Global Centre for R2P. No acute domestic security incidents reported today, but the political environment for civil society and independent media remains closed.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents in the last 24 hours. Costa Rica is watching Panama's homicide surge and Ecuador's cartel operation closely, as trafficking route disruptions historically push criminal activity northward.
ELEVATED. Active gang war between two major criminal organizations is driving a homicide surge in San Miguelito and Colón. The professionalization of contract killing is a new qualitative shift. Investors and operators in Panama City should note rising risk outside the capital's financial district.
ELEVATED. No new major incidents in the last 24 hours, but the baseline remains tense — ELN-FARC dissident clashes in Guainía pose extreme risk to indigenous communities. Peace process with ELN effectively stalled. Operating environment in border departments with Venezuela and Ecuador is particularly volatile.
HIGH. Political transition under Maduro's arrest remains fragile. Oil sector recovery is structurally years away despite market demand. The Cuba fuel cutoff is the most visible downstream consequence of Venezuela's current state. Watch for any reversal in U.S.-Venezuela negotiations or new pressure on transitional authorities.
HIGH. Largest-ever security deployment now active across four provinces. Curfew in force through March 31. Despite scale, previous operations under Noboa failed to reduce violence — watch for criminal adaptation, displacement of networks to uncovered provinces, and human rights concerns from the operation.
MODERATE. Peru approved a $3.4 billion environmental study for Buenaventura's Trapiche copper project this week, a positive signal for mining investment. No significant security incidents reported. Watch for potential criminal spillover if Ecuador's operation displaces networks northward.
MODERATE. Bolivia's institutional credibility on anti-narcotics is under scrutiny following Marset's arrest, which exposed prior government facilitation of his network. The Justiniano investigation into state complicity is the key story to watch. Bolivia assumed CLASI presidency this week.
ELEVATED. U.S.-Brazil diplomatic tension over potential terrorist designations for PCC and Comando Vermelho is creating friction despite joint military exercises. Bukele's viral corruption claim adds domestic political pressure on the Lula government. The Marset network's documented PCC links make Brazil a relevant node in the broader Southern Cone trafficking picture.
ELEVATED. The Marset case directly implicates Paraguay as a key cocaine transit country — court documents name Paraguay explicitly. Watch for the fallout from Marset's potential cooperation with U.S. prosecutors, which could expose Paraguayan political or institutional figures.
ELEVATED. Marset's U.S. court appearance is the dominant story. Uruguay issued him a passport in 2021 that enabled his escape from Dubai — the plea deal's cooperation terms could expose which Uruguayan officials facilitated this. Government has pledged transparency but faces serious institutional questions.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents in the last 24 hours. Argentina remains a peripheral node in Southern Cone trafficking networks but is not an active flashpoint today. Milei government's security posture is aligned with the U.S.-led regional framework.
ELEVATED. Kast launched 'Escudo Fronterizo' Monday with border trenches and walls at Chacalluta. The move is politically significant — Chile is hardening its northern border against irregular migration linked to organized crime. Watch for diplomatic friction with Peru and Bolivia, both of whom will view the fortification with concern.
CRITICAL. Total grid collapse as of Monday. No oil received in over three months. Medical system under severe strain. U.S. demanding Díaz-Canel's removal as precondition for relief. Small protests emerging. This is the most acute humanitarian crisis in the hemisphere right now.
HIGH. No new developments in the last 24 hours, but Haiti's baseline remains one of the most dangerous operating environments in the hemisphere. Gang control over large portions of Port-au-Prince persists. The Kenyan-led MSS mission continues to operate under significant resource constraints.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents. Dominican Republic is serving as a transit point for Portuguese nationals being repatriated from Cuba amid that crisis, per Portugal's foreign ministry. Watch for migration pressure from Cuba if the grid crisis triggers population movement.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents in the last 24 hours. Guyana's oil-driven economic expansion continues. Organized crime activity remains concentrated in Georgetown and border zones with Venezuela and Brazil, but no acute escalation reported.
Cuba is the story most likely to escalate fastest. A total grid collapse with no fuel resupply in sight, small protests already starting, and the Trump administration publicly demanding a leadership change — that combination doesn't stay static. The question isn't whether Cuba destabilizes further; it's how fast and what form it takes. If street protests grow and the regime responds with force, Trump will face pressure to move beyond rhetoric. Senate Democrats' preemptive legislation suggests people in Washington are taking that scenario seriously. Watch for China to step up with emergency fuel shipments — Beijing has every incentive to prevent a U.S. win in Havana.
Ecuador's operation is big on paper, but Noboa has run this play before. Every previous state of emergency under his government coincided with record homicide years. The criminal networks know the playbook: go quiet, move assets to uncovered provinces, wait out the clock. The four curfew provinces are coastal — the interior is not covered. If the operation pushes networks eastward toward provinces like Manabí or Esmeraldas, violence there could spike within weeks. Watch for that geographic shift.
The Marset plea deal in the U.S. is potentially the most consequential long-term development today. A cartel boss who ran 10-ton cocaine shipments and maintained links to the PCC, 'Ndrangheta, and Paraguayan networks is now sitting across a table from federal prosecutors with an incentive to talk. If he cooperates fully, the exposure could reach political figures in Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia. The Uruguayan passport scandal alone — where a diplomat issued him travel documents while he was wanted internationally — suggests there's institutional dirt to uncover.
The U.S. DOJ terrorism charges against Sinaloa lieutenants, combined with Chile's Escudo Fronterizo and Ecuador's U.S.-backed offensive, point to a broader regional security framework taking shape around the Trump administration's Monroe Doctrine posture. Mexico is conspicuously absent from this architecture — it was not invited to the March 7 Miami summit. The Sheinbaum government is in a difficult position: too much cooperation with Washington risks domestic blowback; too little invites direct U.S. pressure. The terrorism charges against Sinaloa figures are a signal to Mexico City as much as to the cartels.
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