The U.S. military launched its first-ever land operation in South America today, conducting joint anti-narcotics operations with Ecuadorian forces against designated terrorist organizations — a significant escalation of U.S. direct military engagement in the region. Ecuador simultaneously imposed a nighttime curfew across four provinces starting March 15, and a multilateral operation dismantled the Los Lobos trafficking network. In Mexico, CJNG post-Mencho instability continues with over 200 trucks attacked and 55+ security forces and cartel fighters dead since the February 22 operation; the organization is entering a dangerous leadership transition period.
U.S. SOUTHCOM announced on March 3 that American and Ecuadorian military forces have launched joint operations against what the Pentagon is calling 'Designated Terrorist Organizations' in Ecuador. This marks the first U.S. military land operation against South American drug cartels, according to CNN and Reuters. SOUTHCOM General Francis Donovan met with Ecuadorian defense officials at the Government Palace in Quito the day prior to finalize coordination.
President Daniel Noboa announced a nighttime curfew running 11 p.m. to 5 a.m. across four provinces — Guayas, Los Ríos, Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, and El Oro — effective March 15 through March 30. Noboa called it a 'new phase of the war against organized crime' targeting drug trafficking corridors along the Pacific coast.
A joint operation involving U.S. agencies, Ecuador, and Europol dismantled the 'Los Lobos' trafficking network. The group was concealing cocaine inside fruit exports and working with an Albanian criminal organization to move product to Europe, per the U.S. Embassy in Quito.
Ecuador recorded 9,253 homicides in 2025 and 747 in January 2026 alone, according to América Económica. The four provinces selected for the curfew sit directly on narco-trafficking corridors linking inland production zones to Pacific ports. El País English reports that violence has been shifting from coastal cities into previously quiet interior provinces like Los Ríos and El Oro over the past two years.
El Mencho — Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel — was buried in Zapopan, Guadalajara on or around March 3, in a gold coffin with regional music and heavy military security. The government deployed armed forces to the cemetery to prevent the funeral from becoming a destabilizing spectacle, per Spanish-language reporting from Capital México and EL PAÍS.
The aftermath of the February 22 military operation that killed El Mencho remains violent. According to Capital México, 25 National Guard members and more than 30 CJNG fighters died in post-operation clashes, the majority in Jalisco state. Trucking federation CANACAR reported that approximately 200 tractor-trailers were attacked following Mencho's death, with drivers killed, others missing, and significant economic losses to the freight sector.
A Chicago federal grand jury indicted an alleged Sinaloa Cartel leader — not named in available reporting — on gun and drug charges, FOX 32 Chicago reported. Prosecutors allege he supplied weapons and trafficked fentanyl and methamphetamine into the United States for nearly a decade. He remains at large.
CJNG reorganization is now the central security question in Mexico. Analysts cited in BioBioChile and EL PAÍS describe two likely scenarios: a managed internal consolidation under surviving leadership, or a fragmentation into competing factions that would push the national homicide rate higher. The Institute for Economics and Peace previously documented how CJNG's expansion drove Mexico's homicide rate from 15.1 to 28.2 per 100,000 between 2015 and 2019.
Colombian authorities arrested 121 people in 'Operation Jade,' a nationwide sweep targeting kidnapping and extortion networks. The operation hit the Clan del Golfo, ELN, Tren de Aragua, and FARC dissidents simultaneously, per Diario La Calle and Boston Herald.
In a separate operation in rural Buenaventura (vereda San Cipriano), police, prosecutors, and the Navy captured four alleged ELN members who were supplying weapons — including rifles, grenades, and ammunition — to the 'Los Shottas' gang operating in Buenaventura port.
Colombian military forces seized improvised explosive devices and artisanal weapons in El Retorno, Guaviare, in an operation against FARC dissidents. Two minors were recovered during the operation, per Infobae Colombia.
In Chocó, a joint operation against illegal mining dismantled logistical structures tied to the Clan del Golfo, destroying more than 100 pieces of mining equipment. Military intelligence assessed the equipment was funding Clan del Golfo criminal economies in the region.
Former FARC commanders formally accepted responsibility before Colombia's transitional justice system for recruiting at least 18,000 children during the armed conflict. The acknowledgment came via video submitted in late January and made public this week.
Reuters reported, citing four sources, that the Trump administration is quietly building a criminal case against Venezuelan interim president Delcy Rodríguez, including a draft indictment. The move is described as a pressure tool in ongoing leverage negotiations with Caracas, not an imminent public action.
Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA announced it has signed new supply contracts with U.S.-market buyers, framing it as maintaining Venezuela's role as a 'reliable supplier' to global energy markets, per Últimas Noticias. This comes amid active diplomatic and commercial engagement around Venezuelan oil.
Vice President Rodríguez separately met with Shell representatives and more than 230 business executives to promote foreign investment in Venezuela's oil sector. U.S. Energy Secretary Christopher Wright visited Caracas in February, signaling active Washington interest in Venezuelan oil flows.
Peru's Congress voted to oust President José Jeri, just four months into his term, over a scandal involving undisclosed meetings with a Chinese businessman, Reuters reported. The removal extends what has become a decade-long cycle of presidential instability in Lima.
The ouster triggers a constitutionally mandated succession process. Peru's congress had been building toward this since Thursday, when it secured enough signatures to begin the impeachment debate, per Reuters.
U.S. Ambassador Mike Hammer stated publicly that the Cuban dictatorship will end in 2026, per the Miami Herald. Cuban political scientist Armando Chaguaceda noted that back-channel contacts between Washington and Havana are ongoing but that hardliners in the Cuban government require a 'credible threat' before they will negotiate.
Panama's government confirmed that Cuba detained 10 Panamanian citizens in Havana, accusing them of distributing anti-government propaganda. Cuban authorities allege the group entered the island to place subversive messages and that each was paid between $1,000 and $1,500 for the operation, per Spanish-language reporting.
The U.S. Embassy in Buenos Aires issued a demonstration alert on March 3, warning American citizens of a planned gathering that could disrupt traffic and services. The demonstration was assessed as expected to be peaceful.
Argentina's Defense Minister Presti is traveling to the United States to participate in a hemispheric security summit led by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, per Infobae. The summit focuses on transnational organized crime, narco-trafficking, and regional security cooperation.
Guatemala recorded 376 homicides in the first two months of 2026, a 25% reduction compared to the same period in 2025, according to official government figures. The government announced a new 15-day state of prevention to reinforce security conditions.
Guatemalan lawyer Stuardo Ralón Orellana was designated president of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) for 2026, the IACHR announced.
President Xiomara Castro has maintained a state of emergency modeled on El Salvador's approach, restricting civil liberties and deploying the military in urban areas. Despite the measures, EL PAÍS English reports that criminal groups continue to control large areas of the country, which remains one of the most violent in Central America.
Honduras marked the 10-year anniversary of the murder of Berta Cáceres, the Lenca activist killed on March 2, 2016, for opposing a hydroelectric project. Her family and colleagues continue pursuing justice, per EL PAÍS.
Cuba's detention of 10 Panamanian nationals in Havana is driving a diplomatic friction point between Panama and Cuba. The Panamanian government confirmed the detentions and the allegations of anti-government propaganda activity.
A cross-border wildfire along the Costa Rica-Panama frontier required joint firefighting response from both countries' fire services, per Teletica Costa Rica.
Authorities arrested a young French national at a Dominican airport with cocaine concealed in his luggage, per Infobae. The seizure is consistent with broader Caribbean drug interdiction activity and an increase in the use of the Dominican Republic as a transshipment hub.
The U.S. Consulate in Porto Alegre issued a demonstration alert on March 3 for a gathering expected to disrupt traffic in the area. The protest was assessed as likely peaceful.
Brazil's port of Santos remains the largest in Latin America and continues to be a significant vulnerability in regional drug trafficking. Reporting from Datos-Bo notes that despite recent security improvements at Santos, the port remains central to PCC cocaine export operations, with authorities acknowledging the problem is not close to being solved.
HIGH. The CJNG is in a leadership transition following El Mencho's February 22 death, and Jalisco state has not fully stabilized. The funeral is done, but the cartel's internal competition for succession is just beginning. Watch for fragmentation into rival factions and potential expansion of violence into new territories as sub-commanders jockey for position. The Sinaloa Cartel, still internally fractured from its own leadership crisis, may attempt to exploit CJNG disorganization. Western Mexico — Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán — is the highest-risk zone. Spring break destinations in Quintana Roo and Baja California remain at lower threat levels.
MODERATE. Homicides down 25% year-over-year in the first two months of 2026, a positive trend. A new 15-day state of prevention is in effect. Baseline organized crime activity continues, particularly in transit corridors. Operating environment is relatively stable compared to neighbors.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents in the last 24 hours. Gang activity in Belize City remains a persistent baseline concern. No major escalation reported.
ELEVATED. Castro's state of emergency remains in force with military deployment in urban areas, but criminal groups retain control of significant territory. The security model is producing some enforcement activity without resolving structural gang control. Elevated risk for personnel outside Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula urban cores.
MODERATE. Bukele's CECOT mega-prison model continues to be the reference point for regional security discussions. Street-level gang activity at historic lows. The U.S.-El Salvador detention agreement for Tren de Aragua deportees remains active. Operating environment for business and travel is the most permissive in Central America.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents reported. Ortega government's authoritarian controls keep street crime low but create a restrictive environment for civil society and foreign businesses. Political risk remains elevated.
MODERATE. No major security incidents. The extradition of former constitutional court magistrate Celso Gamboa to the U.S. on drug charges marks a milestone — the first use of Costa Rica's 2025 extradition reform for serious crimes. A cross-border wildfire with Panama is under joint control. Tourism sector remains stable.
MODERATE. Cuba's detention of 10 Panamanian nationals creates a bilateral diplomatic irritant. The Panama City urban environment remains secure for business travel. Transit zone drug interdiction activity continues at baseline levels.
ELEVATED. Operation Jade's 121 arrests signal aggressive enforcement posture, but the Clan del Golfo, ELN, and FARC dissidents all remain active and capable. The Buenaventura port corridor is a persistent chokepoint for both drugs and cartel violence. Petro's 'total peace' framework is under pressure. Rural areas of Chocó, Guaviare, Catatumbo, and the Pacific coast carry HIGH-level risk. Urban centers (Bogotá, Medellín, Cali) are operationally viable with standard precautions.
HIGH. The country is navigating a complex dual track: active oil diplomacy with U.S. companies and the Trump administration on one hand, and escalating legal pressure including a potential Rodríguez indictment on the other. The political environment is highly volatile. Maduro is gone; the Rodríguez-led transitional government is fragile. U.S. nationals should not travel to Venezuela. Monitor for any disruption to oil supply agreements that could trigger political turbulence.
HIGH. The launch of U.S. military land operations and the four-province curfew starting March 15 represent a major escalation in the government's security response. Criminal networks remain adaptive — the Los Lobos takedown is a win, but the underlying structural conditions (weak judiciary, porous ports, illegal mining funding gangs) are not resolved. The four curfew provinces are active conflict zones. Guayaquil and Quito carry elevated risk for personnel; interior provinces carry high risk.
ELEVATED. Congress just ousted President Jeri, the latest in a decade-long pattern of executive instability. A constitutional succession is underway. Political demonstrations in Lima are likely. The Shining Path remnants and drug trafficking in the VRAEM valley continue at baseline levels. The political crisis is the dominant risk for business and investment decisions right now.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents in the last 24 hours. Political tensions between the Arce and Morales factions within MAS continue to shape the governance environment. Drug transit through the Chapare region is an ongoing baseline concern.
ELEVATED. The U.S. Consulate Porto Alegre demo alert is a minor flag. The Santos port drug trafficking vulnerability remains a structural risk. Rio de Janeiro's criminal landscape, following the major October 2025 police operation, is in a period of gang repositioning. Business operating environment in São Paulo and Brasília is stable; Rio de Janeiro and northeastern cities carry elevated risk.
MODERATE. No significant incidents. The Triple Frontier region (Ciudad del Este) continues as a baseline concern for money laundering and contraband. U.S.-Paraguay security cooperation through the Regional Security Mechanism remains active.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents. Montevideo remains the most stable operating environment in the Southern Cone. Minor uptick in organized crime activity reported over recent months but well below regional norms.
MODERATE. A U.S. Embassy demonstration alert was issued for Buenos Aires on March 3 — assess as low-risk. Defense Minister Presti's attendance at Hegseth's hemispheric security summit signals Buenos Aires is leaning into U.S. alignment on transnational crime. Milei government economic policies continue to create social friction; monitor for labor protests.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents. Rising international airfare costs due to Middle East conflict rerouting are affecting Chilean travelers and tourism-dependent businesses, but this is an economic rather than security concern. Tren de Aragua presence in northern border areas (Tarapacá) remains a watch item.
HIGH. U.S. Ambassador Hammer's public statement that the regime will fall in 2026 is not rhetoric — it reflects an active U.S. policy posture. The detention of 10 Panamanian nationals suggests Havana is in a defensive crouch, cracking down on perceived subversion. The combination of U.S. pressure, oil supply cuts from Venezuela, and economic deterioration makes Cuba one of the most politically volatile environments in the hemisphere right now.
HIGH. No new major incidents in the last 24 hours, but baseline conditions remain dire. Gang coalitions control significant portions of Port-au-Prince. The Kenyan-led MSS multinational force is present but operating under severe resource constraints. No change to travel advisory: non-essential travel should not occur.
MODERATE. The arrest of a French national with cocaine in luggage is a routine interdiction event. Dominican Republic is increasingly used as a Caribbean transshipment node. Tourist zones in Punta Cana and Santo Domingo remain stable. Enhanced drug screening at Las Américas International Airport is an operational reality.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents. Guyana's oil boom continues to attract foreign investment and some associated crime. The Venezuela border remains a watch area given political instability next door, but no active cross-border incidents reported.
The U.S. military's first-ever land operation in South America is the most consequential regional development in weeks — possibly months. Watch how other governments in the hemisphere respond. Ecuador has essentially invited U.S. forces onto its soil, which gives Washington a new operational template. If the Ecuador model produces visible results (meaningful cartel disruption, reduced violence in the curfew provinces), expect pressure on other governments — particularly Panama, Honduras, and eventually Colombia — to accept similar arrangements. If it produces civilian casualties or backlash, it becomes a political liability for Noboa and a cautionary tale for other partners.
The Delcy Rodríguez indictment threat coming out of Reuters deserves attention beyond the headline. Venezuela has signed new oil supply contracts with U.S. buyers while simultaneously facing U.S. legal pressure on its leadership. This is a deliberate squeeze play — Washington is keeping economic incentives on the table while escalating personal legal risk for Rodríguez. The question is whether the indictment threat is leverage to extract political concessions, or whether it signals that the Trump administration has decided the current Venezuelan government is not a viable long-term partner. The answer to that question has major implications for regional energy markets and stability.
Peru's political crisis is underreported relative to its actual risk. José Jeri is the latest in a string of presidents removed by Peru's Congress, and the succession mechanism is tested but functional. The real risk is that perpetual executive instability is hollowing out the state's capacity to address criminal governance in the VRAEM coca valley and along the northern border with Colombia and Ecuador. As Ecuador and Colombia tighten enforcement on their own territory, criminal networks under pressure will look for softer ground — and Peru's institutional weakness makes it an increasingly attractive redirect.
The CJNG succession question will define Mexico's security trajectory for 2026. History suggests the most dangerous period comes 60–120 days after a major leader's death, when mid-tier commanders are actively testing each other's resolve and territorial claims. The February 22 operation killed Mencho; we are now in week two of that window. Watch for violence spikes in CJNG-controlled territories — Jalisco, Colima, Guanajuato, Michoacán, and Veracruz in particular — as the internal competition sharpens.
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