Trump used last night's State of the Union to frame the Western Hemisphere as a war zone he's winning. In 108 minutes, he claimed credit for El Mencho's killing, awarded the Medal of Honor to the soldier wounded in the Maduro capture raid, designated Latin American cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, declared fentanyl a weapon of mass destruction, and cited 44 strikes on suspected drug boats in the Caribbean since September. "Restoring American security and dominance in the Western Hemisphere" was the explicit framing — and it landed hours after CJNG retaliation from El Mencho's death left 75 people dead across Mexico. The gap between the victory lap in Washington and the body count in Jalisco tells you everything about where this is heading. CJNG succession violence is still active, Mexico has 10,000 additional troops deployed, and the U.S.-Mexico security relationship is being rewritten in real time.
Mexican military forces killed CJNG leader Nemesio 'El Mencho' Oseguera Cervantes during a raid on Tapalpa, Jalisco on Sunday, February 23. The operation was backed by U.S. intelligence, which the White House confirmed publicly. Oseguera was 59 years old and had been Mexico's most-wanted criminal for over a decade.
CJNG's retaliatory response was immediate and widespread. On Sunday alone, the cartel staged over 250 roadblocks across 20 states, burned vehicles and supermarkets, and launched 27 attacks against security forces. By Monday, Mexico's security secretary Omar García Harfuch confirmed at least 27 security personnel dead — including 25 members of the National Guard, one prison guard, and one Jalisco prosecutor — along with 30 cartel members killed. A civilian woman also died. Total dead since the operation stands at roughly 75.
Mexico deployed 10,000 additional troops Monday to restore order. As of February 25, fighting between security forces and CJNG gunmen was still ongoing in parts of Jalisco and neighboring states. The U.S. Embassy maintained a shelter-in-place advisory for Jalisco and Nayarit — down from 18 states at the height of the violence.
A major prison break occurred in Jalisco during the chaos on Sunday. Jalisco's security secretary Juan Pablo Hernández confirmed gunmen attacked the facility from outside, enabling a mass escape. Security alerts were activated across multiple states and operations to recapture escapees were launched.
An American-born CJNG member known as 'El 03' has reportedly taken interim command of cartel operations following Oseguera's death, according to reporting from U.S.-based security sources. Mexican and U.S. intelligence had tracked El Mencho partly by monitoring an associate — reportedly one of his girlfriends — in the weeks before the Tapalpa raid.
Politico reported February 24 that U.S. intelligence support for the Tapalpa operation reflects a broader shift under the Trump administration, which has put counter-narcotics at the center of its foreign policy toward Mexico. The Joint Interagency Task Force on Drug Cartels, formally established last month, was involved in mapping cartel networks on both sides of the border ahead of the raid.
President Trump, speaking to congressional allies on February 25, cited El Mencho's killing as evidence that his administration is 'restoring security and dominance in the Western Hemisphere.' A high-level U.S.-Mexico security meeting took place on February 25 — two days after the operation — per El País. Mexico has now extradited over 100 organized crime figures to U.S. custody.
The U.S. State Department had offered a $15 million reward for information leading to Oseguera's capture. That reward program's disposition is now under review. President Sheinbaum, while crediting her own military, has not publicly confirmed the extent of U.S. involvement, though she has not denied it.
The ELN announced a unilateral ceasefire on February 23 ahead of Colombia's March 8 regional elections, per Diario de Casanare. The announcement came hours after peace envoys met with ELN representatives in Catatumbo. The guerrilla group's statement accused the Petro government of 'perfidy,' saying the president ordered airstrikes on Catatumbo immediately after the meeting.
ELN commander alias 'Calarcá' responded to the government's announced military offensive on February 25, saying the group would remain at the negotiating table despite ongoing combat operations. Infobae reported his statement reflects the contradictory state of Colombia's peace process: talks and airstrikes happening simultaneously.
The Colombian Army defused multiple IEDs on highways in Arauca department this week, embedded using a tactic the military calls 'reparcheo' — concealing explosives inside road patches. The Army described this as a 'repeated criminal practice' by the ELN on strategic road corridors, not isolated incidents.
Two soldiers were wounded by a drone-borne explosive attack in Tarazá, Antioquia, according to Infobae. Armed groups used commercially available drones adapted to drop explosives. The injured were evacuated by air to Medellín.
Colombian police arrested alias 'Cucaracho,' identified as the top narcotrafficking operations chief for Tren de Aragua, according to El Espectador. Cucaracho held an Interpol red notice. Authorities described him as a key coordinator of the Venezuelan-origin gang's drug routes and financing across Latin America.
The political and energy transition in Venezuela continued to move quickly this week. The government of interim president Delcy Rodríguez released 65 political prisoners over three days and requested the UN intervene for Nicolás Maduro's release from U.S. custody, per CPG Click Petróleo e Gás. The infamous Helicoide detention facility was formally closed amid international pressure.
Shell announced that newly issued U.S. general licenses for oil and gas exploration in Venezuela will allow it to advance the long-stalled Dragon gas project, which holds an estimated 4.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves. The African Energy Chamber reported this February 25, noting first production could come online within three years.
President Trump told congressional allies that the U.S. is now receiving 80 million barrels of oil from Venezuela — a figure that reflects the U.S. taking effective control of exports following Maduro's capture in January. The Pentagon separately intercepted what it described as the last sanctioned Venezuelan oil tanker, which had been routing cargo to China.
Cuban security advisers and doctors have been leaving Venezuela in significant numbers, according to Japan Times citing 11 sources. Washington's pressure on Rodríguez to unwind the Cuba-Venezuela alliance appears to be producing results, though the process remains fragile.
Cuba's energy crisis deepened this week. Wired reported that blackouts cut power to nearly 64% of the island during peak demand hours. The crisis worsened after Maduro's capture in January severed Venezuelan oil shipments, which had been Cuba's primary energy source since the Chávez era.
Tourism collapsed in January, with 24,000 fewer arrivals, according to reporting from Spanish-language outlets. Flight disruptions linked to the fuel shortage are causing tour operators to reroute travelers. Portuguese authorities are flying tourists home via the Dominican Republic due to the scarcity of aviation fuel in Cuba.
The Trump administration said it plans to clarify that U.S. energy companies can sell oil and fuel to private Cuban businesses — a carve-out intended to ease humanitarian concerns while maintaining pressure on the state. Bloomberg reported February 25 that formal guidance to energy companies is being prepared.
Secretary of State Rubio traveled to the Caribbean on February 25 for a regional summit where Cuba policy dominated discussions. Caribbean leaders expressed concern about the humanitarian fallout from Washington's pressure campaign. Trinidad and Tobago PM Kamla Persad-Bissessar publicly thanked the U.S. for counter-narcotics operations in the region.
Costa Rican authorities dismantled a criminal network on February 24 that was moving up to 200 migrants per day across the Nicaragua border, generating up to ₡70 million per month, according to reporting from Tico Times and regional outlets. Victims were robbed at gunpoint and abandoned without money or belongings.
Costa Rica finalized extradition proceedings against two high-profile defendants — Celso Gamboa and alias 'Pecho de Rata' — under a constitutional reform signed in May 2025 allowing extradition of Costa Rican nationals for drug trafficking and terrorism. The appeals court confirmed the offenses met the post-reform threshold.
President-elect Fernández is scheduled to attend a high-stakes security summit in Florida hosted by President Trump. She has stated she will seek U.S. assistance specifically on organized crime and narco-trafficking, signaling a closer security alignment with Washington than her predecessor.
Panamanian authorities arrested two individuals on February 24 for charging migrants up to $3,000 for illegal crossings, according to Newsroom Panama. The network operated boat trips from Colombia's Gulf of Urabá to the Panamanian Caribbean and provided jungle trail passage, canoe transport, and ground transportation. Payments were tracked to Colombia, Costa Rica, and the United States.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a formal warning to Honduras this week regarding the economic impact of illegal migration and remittances, per reporting from regional outlets. The message signals continued U.S. pressure on Tegucigalpa to tighten migration controls.
A retired Honduran DPI director stated publicly that MS-13 operates as CJNG's armed wing inside Honduras. Retired commissioner Leandro Osorio said 'we know the presence El Mencho had with MS-13,' and warned that organized crime in Honduras is seeking to infiltrate institutions, not just control trafficking routes. El Mencho's death adds a layer of uncertainty to those relationships.
Peru's political situation shifted again with the installation of its ninth president in a decade. Analysis from regional outlets notes Congress has effectively turned Peru into a parliamentary autocracy, with Fuerza Popular (Keiko Fujimori) and Renovación Popular (Rafael López Aliaga) controlling the legislative agenda ahead of upcoming presidential elections.
No major new security incidents were reported in Ecuador in the past 24-48 hours. However, Spanish-language security analysts cited Ecuador this week as a case study in CJNG's 'franchise model' — the cartel reportedly installed operational cells in Ecuador that may function semi-autonomously even after El Mencho's death, per El Comercio Perú and regional security reporting.
Beyond the Colombia arrest of 'Cucaracho,' Tren de Aragua continues to surface as a cross-border threat. U.S. counter-narcotics operations in the Caribbean have also been framed in part as targeting TdA logistics. Regional security analysts note the group's operations now span Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, and the United States — making individual arrests meaningful but insufficient to degrade the network.
HIGH. The post-El Mencho crisis is still live. Security forces are engaged with CJNG fighters in Jalisco and nearby states, prison escapees from Sunday's breakout remain at large, and an internal succession struggle is now underway inside the cartel. The operating environment for foreigners remains dangerous in Jalisco and Nayarit. Watch for CJNG factional fighting, Sinaloa Cartel attempts to exploit CJNG's vulnerability, and further cartel attacks on government targets.
ELEVATED. No significant developments in the last 24-48 hours. Ongoing concern over CJNG and Sinaloa presence along the western corridor. El Mencho's death may shift drug shipment patterns through Guatemalan territory — watch for increased cartel movement along the Pacific coast route.
MODERATE. No significant developments. Belize serves as a minor transit corridor; baseline gang violence in Belize City persists. No changes in threat posture.
ELEVATED. U.S. pressure on migration and the MS-13/CJNG relationship are the twin drivers of near-term concern. El Mencho's death creates uncertainty in MS-13's command relationships and could trigger internal disputes over cartel contracts. DHS pressure on remittances adds an economic stress dimension.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents. The Bukele government's security model continues to attract positive regional attention, with Central American tourists reportedly treating El Salvador as a safe destination. Territorial gang control has been largely suppressed but watch for CJNG attempts to establish new logistics footholds.
MODERATE. No significant developments in the past 24-48 hours. The Ortega government's security posture remains inward-focused. Nicaragua's northern border is a known migration corridor. No changes in baseline threat level.
ELEVATED. Active counter-narcotics and anti-smuggling operations underway. The successful migrant network takedown and extradition proceedings signal a government leaning harder into security cooperation with the U.S. ahead of a new administration. Drug trafficking through Costa Rica is a growing concern given its geography between Colombian sources and North American markets.
ELEVATED. The Darién Gap migration corridor remains active and dangerous. This week's arrest of migrant smugglers reflects ongoing enforcement pressure, but the underlying demand — and criminal supply — has not abated. Colombia-to-Panama drug and human trafficking routes remain a primary concern.
HIGH. The ELN ceasefire announcement is tactical, not strategic — the group is trying to manage its public image ahead of March 8 elections while continuing armed operations. Drone attacks on troops, IED campaigns in Arauca, and the Catatumbo situation all reflect a military that is active but losing ground in the information space. The peace process is threading a very thin needle.
HIGH. The post-Maduro transition is the most consequential political process in the hemisphere right now. Oil sector restructuring, prisoner releases, and Cuban security adviser withdrawals are all happening simultaneously under intense U.S. pressure. The situation inside the Rodríguez government is described as 'volatile' by NGOs and international observers. Energy deals with Shell and U.S. oil firms are moving fast.
ELEVATED. No new major incidents reported in the last 24 hours, but the structural threat remains serious. CJNG's franchise cells in Ecuador operate semi-independently, meaning El Mencho's death in Mexico does not automatically reduce their operational capability here. Port security at Guayaquil and gang violence in the urban periphery remain the primary watch points.
ELEVATED. Political instability with a ninth president in a decade creates governance gaps that organized crime exploits. No acute security incidents reported in the last 24-48 hours. Drug trafficking corridors in the VRAEM region remain active. Congressional dominance over the executive is the defining feature of Peru's current political risk.
MODERATE. No significant developments in the past 24 hours. Bolivia remains a cocaine transit and production country. Political tension between the Arce and Morales factions of MAS continues to distract from security governance. No acute incidents.
MODERATE. No significant developments in the last 24-48 hours directly. The Bolsonaro-era coup plot investigation continues through the courts but is not generating new security incidents. Organized crime activity — particularly by Primeiro Comando da Capital and Comando Vermelho — follows baseline patterns. Watch for any CJNG restructuring that shifts cocaine flows toward Brazilian ports.
MODERATE. No significant developments. The Triple Frontier area remains a chronic concern for money laundering and contraband flows, but no new incidents reported. Paraguay's role as a cannabis producer and cocaine transit country is stable at current levels.
MODERATE. No significant developments. Uruguay maintains the region's most stable security environment. Port-based drug trafficking through Montevideo is a persistent background concern but no acute incidents.
MODERATE. No significant developments in the last 24-48 hours. The Milei government's economic reforms continue to dominate the national conversation. Rosario remains a flashpoint for narco-related violence at the local level, but no major escalation reported.
ELEVATED. No new incidents reported, but Chile's northern border with Bolivia and Peru remains a significant entry point for Tren de Aragua members and drug flows. Venezuelan migrant-linked gang activity in Santiago and Antofagasta is the primary ongoing concern.
CRITICAL. The island is in an acute crisis. Power outages affecting nearly two-thirds of the population, collapsing tourism, aviation fuel shortages, and a severed Venezuelan oil supply line are converging. The Trump administration's blockade is described by analysts as the most severe external pressure Cuba has faced since the 1962 Missile Crisis. Social stability is at genuine risk if the energy situation does not improve.
HIGH. No new developments specifically reported in the last 24 hours, but the baseline environment remains dire. Gang control of Port-au-Prince territory is extensive, the transitional government lacks authority outside the capital, and the Kenyan-led MSS mission has not reversed the security trajectory. Conditions for civilians remain among the worst in the hemisphere.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents. The DR is benefiting from flight disruptions to Cuba and Mexico safety advisories, with Canadian and European travelers rerouting to Punta Cana. The Haiti border wall project continues to generate low-level tension. No acute threats.
MODERATE. No significant developments in the last 24-48 hours. Guyana's oil boom continues to attract investment but also generates corruption and organized crime risks. Venezuela-Guyana border tensions related to the Essequibo dispute remain a background concern but are not currently escalating.
The CJNG succession is the story to watch this week, and it is more complicated than most headlines suggest. 'El 03' reportedly taking the helm is not a settled transition — it is a opening bid. CJNG's regional commanders in Colima, Veracruz, Guanajuato, and overseas franchises will each have their own view of who should lead, and some will not wait to find out. The Sinaloa Cartel, still fractured from El Mayo Zambada's arrest in 2024 and the Chapitos' internal conflict, now faces a wounded rival. Expect both cartels to probe each other's turf in the coming days, particularly in Colima, Michoacán, and along Pacific coastal corridors. This is not post-conflict stability — it is the opening phase of a new conflict cycle.
The U.S.-Mexico security relationship is being restructured in real time, and the Tapalpa raid was a visible demonstration of how far it has shifted. Washington provided intelligence, publicly claimed credit, and is now holding a high-level security meeting two days later. That pace of coordination is new. The question for the next 30 days is whether Sheinbaum can leverage El Mencho's death to slow Trump's pressure for direct U.S. military action in Mexico — or whether the CJNG violence of the past 48 hours gives Trump's camp ammunition to push harder. Watch the extradition pipeline: Mexico has sent over 100 cartel figures to U.S. custody, and each batch is now part of a bilateral negotiation.
The Venezuela-Cuba energy severance is producing a humanitarian crisis in Cuba faster than Washington may have anticipated. The Trump administration's decision to carve out private-sector oil sales is a pressure-relief valve, but it may not move fast enough. If blackouts worsen and food shortages deepen, the Cuban government could face internal pressure it has not seen in decades — or, alternatively, crack down hard and hand Beijing a propaganda win. Rubio's Caribbean summit on February 25 is trying to hold the regional coalition together, but Caribbean leaders are uncomfortable with the pace and scale of U.S. pressure. Trinidad and Tobago's PM is publicly supportive; others are not. Watch whether any Caribbean nation breaks publicly with Washington's Cuba position in the next two weeks.
Tren de Aragua deserves more attention than it is getting right now. The arrest of 'Cucaracho' in Colombia is operationally significant, but TdA's strength is its distributed structure — no single leader controls the whole network. With the hemisphere's attention on CJNG and Venezuela, TdA has room to consolidate in Chile, Peru, and Ecuador without much pressure. The CJNG restructuring in Mexico could also create new partnership opportunities for TdA in transit corridors where CJNG relationships with local groups are now uncertain. Decision-makers with operations in the Southern Cone should not assume that CJNG's problems in Mexico reduce the TdA threat in their area.
Free daily Latin America security intelligence. Delivered at 0600.