Mexican special forces killed CJNG leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes, 59, in Tapalpa, Jalisco on Sunday in a US-intelligence-backed operation — the biggest cartel takedown since El Chapo's capture. Retaliatory violence has erupted across at least eight Mexican states, with highway blockades, burning vehicles, and gunfights reported as far as Puerto Vallarta, forcing Mexico to deploy 2,500 additional troops. The succession fight between CJNG factions and potential opportunistic moves by the Sinaloa Cartel now represent the most significant near-term organized crime threat in the Western Hemisphere.
Mexican special forces killed CJNG boss Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes — known as 'El Mencho' — in Tapalpa, Jalisco on Sunday. He was 59. The Defense Secretariat confirmed he was wounded during the raid and died en route to Mexico City. Four additional CJNG members were killed in the operation; two more died during transfer. It is the most significant cartel leadership kill since Joaquín 'El Chapo' Guzmán's capture in 2016.
The operation was a Mexican military lead, but US intelligence was central to it. Reuters reported that the newly stood-up Joint Interagency Task Force–Counter Cartel — launched in January 2026 and involving multiple US agencies working through US Northern Command — provided targeting intelligence that tracked Oseguera through a romantic partner. A US defense official stressed the raid itself was Mexican-executed. US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau publicly welcomed the result.
Retaliatory violence erupted across more than eight states within hours. Armed CJNG members blocked highways, torched vehicles, and engaged security forces in Jalisco, Guanajuato, Michoacán, and several other states. Puerto Vallarta was particularly hard-hit, with thousands of tourists attempting to evacuate. Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered the Texas Highway Patrol, Texas Rangers, and Criminal Investigations Division to beef up border monitoring against spillover. Mexico deployed 2,500 additional troops nationwide.
President Claudia Sheinbaum addressed the nation Sunday evening, urging citizens to stay calm and remain indoors. The release of Guzmán López — son of El Chapo and a key figure in the Sinaloa Cartel — was reportedly considered and briefly reported as a government concession to reduce violence, though Mexican officials have not confirmed this publicly. The sequence of events raises serious questions about backroom negotiating.
The longer-term concern is succession. CJNG has a paramilitary command structure, but no publicly confirmed number-two with El Mencho's authority. The Sinaloa Cartel — already fractured internally since mid-2024 — may attempt to seize CJNG-controlled corridors. Analysts at CNN and India Today flagged Jalisco, Guanajuato, and Colima as the most likely flashpoints for inter-cartel warfare in the coming weeks.
Colombia's ELN declared a unilateral ceasefire Monday ahead of next month's congressional elections, saying it will halt attacks against military and electoral authorities so people can vote 'in liberty.' The group did not specify an end date for the ceasefire, per its statement published on the ELN's website.
The announcement comes after weeks of election-related violence. Earlier this month, Indigenous Senator Aida Quilcué was kidnapped while traveling in the Cauca region — she was released unharmed after several hours following a military response. Separately, two bodyguards of Senator Jairo Castellanos were killed when ELN fighters fired on his caravan in eastern Colombia. The ELN ceasefire offer reads partly as a PR move given the political pressure these incidents generated.
President Gustavo Petro's peace negotiation track with the ELN has produced few durable results, and the group's influence in rural areas has demonstrably grown during his administration, according to AP and the Washington Post. The congressional elections will be a key test of whether the security situation allows credible voting in conflict-affected departments.
The US-Venezuela relationship remains in an active, transactional phase. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright visited Caracas on February 11 to assess the state of the oil industry, and the US embassy has confirmed meetings between US envoy Dogu and Venezuelan officials to reiterate the three-phase roadmap outlined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio: stabilization, economic recovery and reconciliation, then transition. Venezuela named Felix Plasencia as its diplomatic representative to Washington.
JPMorgan analysts have warned that ongoing political turbulence could temporarily cut Venezuelan oil production by half if disruptions hit PDVSA. Meanwhile, Venezuela has been actively pursuing trade arrangements that bypass the US dollar, which American officials view as part of a broader contest with China over energy and rare earth resources. That geopolitical angle is driving urgency on the US side to lock in access terms before Beijing deepens its position.
El País reported this week that local and foreign mining companies operating in Ecuador are being systematically forced to pay protection money or hire suppliers linked to extortion networks in order to stay operational. The pressure is coming from organized crime groups that have expanded into the extractive sector as a revenue stream.
Ecuador's security situation has stabilized somewhat compared to the gang warfare peak of 2023–2024, but criminal groups have adapted — moving from overt street violence toward economic extortion of businesses, including international mining operators. This represents a maturation of criminal enterprise that is harder to address with conventional security responses.
Cuba's domestic situation continues to deteriorate. El País reported this week that the pillars of Castroism — healthcare, education, poverty reduction, and public safety — are visibly crumbling. Blackouts, food shortages, and a collapse of basic services are generating a society that has, in the words of the outlet's correspondents in Havana, 'lost hope.'
US sanctions and the reduction of Venezuelan oil subsidies under the ongoing US-Venezuela negotiations are compounding the pressure. Cuba currently has no clear economic lifeline, and the government's ability to maintain public order is being tested in ways not seen in decades.
No major breaking security developments in Brazil in the last 24 hours. The broader regional context — particularly CJNG's post-El Mencho fragmentation — warrants monitoring for any downstream effects on Brazilian drug trafficking routes, where CJNG-supplied cocaine and precursor chemicals move through São Paulo-connected networks.
No new significant developments in the last 24 hours beyond the chronic gang control situation in Port-au-Prince. The Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support Mission continues to operate at limited capacity. Viv Ansanm gang coalition remains in control of large portions of the capital. Situation is stable in its instability — no acute escalation reported.
No breaking developments in the last 24 hours. Guatemala's border with Mexico warrants elevated monitoring given post-El Mencho CJNG violence — CJNG has established corridor interests through Guatemalan territory, and a succession struggle could spill pressure southward onto trafficking routes and border communities.
CJNG leader El Mencho killed by Mexican special forces in Tapalpa, Jalisco in a US-backed operation. Retaliatory violence across 8+ states. 2,500 troops deployed. Succession fight and Sinaloa opportunism are the primary near-term risks.
No acute developments. Monitor for CJNG succession spillover along drug corridors running through Guatemalan territory into Mexico.
No significant developments in last 24 hours. Quiet along the northern border. Routine monitoring only.
No breaking developments. President Castro's security policies remain under scrutiny domestically. No acute incidents reported in last 24 hours.
No new developments. Bukele's gang crackdown continues to suppress headline violence. Regional discussion ongoing about the 'Bukeleization' model's application elsewhere in Latin America.
No significant new developments. Ortega government continues political repression at steady state. No acute security incidents reported in last 24 hours.
No breaking developments. Country continues to grapple with rising transit-related drug violence, but no acute incidents in last 24 hours.
No significant developments in last 24 hours. Darién Gap migration flows remain a background concern. Routine monitoring.
ELN declared a unilateral ceasefire ahead of March congressional elections. Election-related violence has already killed two bodyguards and resulted in the brief kidnapping of a sitting senator. Petro's peace process with ELN remains fragile.
US-Venezuela transactional engagement continues. Energy Secretary Wright visited Caracas Feb. 11. Rubio's three-phase roadmap being discussed. JPMorgan warns political disruption could cut oil output by half. Dollar-bypass trade strategy complicating US interests.
Mining companies reporting systematic extortion by organized crime networks. Criminal groups have matured from street violence into economic coercion of the extractive sector, including foreign operators.
No significant developments in last 24 hours. Political instability under President Boluarte continues at baseline. No acute security incidents reported.
No breaking developments. Lingering political tension between Arce and Morales factions remains background noise. No acute incidents in last 24 hours.
No breaking developments. Monitor downstream effects of CJNG fragmentation on Brazilian trafficking networks. São Paulo-connected supply chains have historically sourced from CJNG-aligned suppliers.
No significant developments. Paraguay remains a key node for cocaine transshipment and arms trafficking into Brazil. No acute incidents in last 24 hours.
No breaking developments. Relatively stable. New government under President Orsi continues to settle in. No acute security concerns in last 24 hours.
No significant security incidents in last 24 hours. Milei government's economic reforms dominate the domestic agenda. Regional security dynamics being watched but no acute threats reported.
No breaking developments. Migration-linked crime in the north remains an ongoing structural issue. No acute incidents in last 24 hours.
Severe economic deterioration accelerating. Healthcare, education, food, and security systems visibly failing per El País reporting from Havana. US sanctions and loss of Venezuelan oil subsidies are compounding the crisis. Social stability risk is rising.
Chronic gang control of Port-au-Prince continues. Kenyan-led MSS Mission operating at limited capacity. Viv Ansanm coalition remains dominant. No acute new escalation in last 24 hours, but baseline conditions remain critical.
No significant developments in last 24 hours. Monitoring Haitian instability for cross-border effects. No acute security incidents reported.
No breaking developments. Oil production boom continues. No acute security incidents. US-Venezuela negotiations have indirect implications for Guyana's Exxon-led offshore operations given regional dynamics.
The El Mencho kill is genuinely historic — the biggest cartel leadership takedown in roughly a decade — but history says these moments create more short-term chaos, not less. The first 72 hours are the most dangerous as CJNG mid-level commanders test each other and external rivals probe for weakness. Watch Puerto Vallarta and the Jalisco–Guanajuato corridor specifically; these are CJNG's economic heartland and the most likely sites of violent internal competition.
The Joint Interagency Task Force–Counter Cartel is the structural story underneath the headline. This is a new standing US military-led entity with an explicit mandate to map cartel networks on both sides of the border. That is a meaningful escalation in US operational posture toward Mexico, and it will create friction with Mexican sovereignty sensitivities even as Sheinbaum accepts the intelligence benefit. Watch for Mexican political backlash from opposition figures and nationalist voices in the coming days.
Colombia's ELN ceasefire announcement deserves skepticism. The group declared it unilaterally, with no end date, after already killing two bodyguards and kidnapping a senator. It reads more like an attempt to avoid international pressure ahead of elections than a genuine de-escalation. Watch whether the ceasefire holds in Cauca and Norte de Santander — the two departments where ELN activity has been most intense.
The Venezuela-US oil diplomacy track is moving faster than public reporting reflects. Wright's February 11 Caracas visit and Rubio's three-phase framework suggest Washington is trying to lock in access before any political transition destabilizes PDVSA further. Watch for a formal oil licensing announcement or sanctions carve-out in the next two to four weeks.
Cuba warrants a dedicated watch item. The convergence of economic collapse, loss of Venezuelan energy support, and intensifying US sanctions is creating conditions for social unrest at a scale the Díaz-Canel government may not be able to contain through traditional repression. A significant protest event in Cuba would have immediate regional and US domestic political implications.
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