Colombia is burning — simultaneous ELN and Clan del Golfo offensives in Antioquia, Arauca, and Guaviare are displacing thousands and killing soldiers, with armed groups now routinely using explosive drones against military targets. Cuba is in freefall: the Trump fuel embargo has gutted public transport, hospitals lack medicine, and Cuban security forces are quietly withdrawing from Venezuela under US pressure. Argentina's Milei pushed a sweeping labor reform through the lower house over a general strike and street clashes — the biggest social rupture of his presidency so far.
The Colombian Army formally requested emergency support from the Antioquia governorship on February 21 after sustained combat with both the ELN and Clan del Golfo in rural Remedios municipality. Communities are confined, families are fleeing, and armed groups are deploying explosive-laden drones against military positions. No extraordinary security council has been convened yet — a notable gap in the official response.
Separate ELN fighting in Yondó (Antioquia) and southern Bolívar forced additional mass displacements, according to the Defensoría del Pueblo. The two-front pressure from ELN and Clan del Golfo in northeast Antioquia is stretching Army resources across a wide geographic corridor.
In Arauca, Army troops from the 18th Brigade neutralized an ELN roadside bomb on the Tame-Arauca highway on February 21. The ELN has also conducted drone strikes against the San Jorge military cantonment in Saravena — a significant escalation in offensive drone capability in that department.
At least one soldier, identified as Yeudy Osorio Córdoba, was killed in combat against the FARC dissident Estructura Isaías Carvajal (aligned with alias 'Calarcá') in San José del Guaviare. The Colombian Army announced the engagement in an official communiqué posted February 22.
The ELN also detained an indigenous Barí caravan traveling to Cúcuta at an illegal checkpoint in Norte de Santander, according to the Defensoría del Pueblo. The affected community is from the Catalaura reservation. The Colombian Army separately dismantled a clandestine cocaine processing lab in Cumaribo, Vichada, near the eastern border with Venezuela.
Cuba's public transport system has reached critical levels as fuel rationing intensifies. The crisis follows Trump's January executive order imposing tariffs on any country selling oil to Cuba — a move that effectively cut off Venezuelan supply. El País and Infobae both report hospitals are operating without basic medicines.
Reuters confirmed on February 22 that Cuban security forces are withdrawing from Venezuela under sustained US pressure. A US source told Reuters that some undercover intelligence agents are likely staying behind to monitor the political situation. The withdrawal ends a decades-long arrangement that was central to Maduro's security architecture.
Responsible Statecraft reports that Secretary of State Rubio may be softening his Cuba regime-change posture, suggesting Trump prefers a negotiated deal to managed collapse. Whether that produces any relief from the fuel embargo is unclear, but the diplomatic channel appears at least partially open.
The Venezuelan government has received more than 1,500 amnesty requests under its new law, Al Jazeera reported February 22. Opposition politician Juan Pablo Guanipa had his house arrest order lifted — a notable individual case — though the law excludes security forces convicted of terrorism-related charges, limiting its reach.
Former Venezuelan Vice President Tareck El Aissami, who has been in custody, was officially confirmed detained by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), per reporting published February 22. El Aissami has carried a US narco-trafficking designation since 2017.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright visited Caracas on February 11 to assess Venezuela's oil sector. The US embassy subsequently published a readout of a separate meeting where a US envoy reiterated Rubio's three-phase framework — stabilization, economic recovery, and transition — to Venezuelan officials. Venezuela named Felix Plasencia as its diplomatic representative to the United States.
Argentina's lower house passed President Milei's contested labor reform on February 21, triggering the largest general strike of his administration. The CGT confederation said participation exceeded any previous strike since Milei took office. Tear gas, water cannons, and rubber bullets were deployed near Congress; around 30 people were detained in the previous Senate-stage protests.
The reform makes dismissals cheaper and relaxes hiring conditions — labor groups and international bodies are calling it a rollback of workers' rights dating to the 1970s. More than 21,000 companies have closed in two years under Milei, and manufacturing output is declining, per Infobae.
Mexico's Navy (Semar) seized a narco-submarine carrying approximately 4 tons of cocaine in the Pacific, per WIRED on February 21. The vessel carried 179 packages of the drug. Between 2023 and early 2025, Semar operations netted over 111 tons of cocaine, 223 vessels, and 476 arrested traffickers of Ecuadorian, Mexican, Colombian, and Central American nationalities.
A naval operation was underway in Badiraguato, Sinaloa — a historically significant cartel territory — as of February 21, according to La Verdad Noticias. The operation is part of a broader anti-trafficking strategy in a region still fractured by the Sinaloa Cartel's internal civil war. Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch has been coordinating operations in the area.
Three armed civilians were killed and two detained in a confrontation with ministerial agents, per Infobae on February 22. Separately, six men carrying weapons and radio equipment — including one identified as 'El Chapo' — were arrested in Chiapas, along with four others and a minor. The group faces open criminal investigations for kidnapping, robbery, and rape.
A leaked audio revealed top Mexican Navy officials discussing cover-up arrangements for fuel theft and smuggling operations linked to MORENA party figures, per reporting published February 22. The recordings allege the scheme reached the highest levels of the naval institution and the ruling party.
Costa Rica's President Rodrigo Chaves announced plans to raise illegal gold mining and smuggling operations — specifically those connected to organized crime in the Nicaragua border zone — in talks with the Trump administration. Chaves noted criminal groups have shifted from artisanal to semi-industrial extraction methods, per reporting published February 22.
Guatemalan authorities detained their 12th extraditable subject of 2026, arrested in Quezaltenango on charges including narco-trafficking. Eight of the twelve extraditions this year involve drug charges, per the Interior Ministry. The pace reflects deepened cooperation with US agencies.
US and El Salvador officials formalized expanded cooperation on organized crime and irregular migration, per the Salvadoran presidency's press office. The agreement covers intelligence sharing for transnational crime prosecution.
Paraguayan police, working with prosecutors, executed Operation Nexus 2 — a series of coordinated raids across multiple municipalities including Mariano Roque Alonso and Asunción, plus searches inside the Emboscada and Cambyretá prisons. The operation dismantled a narco-trafficking network tied to international organized crime.
Among those detained was Víctor Hugo Centurión, a former goalkeeper for Deportivo Cali, who turned himself in and is linked to fugitive Sebastián Marset's criminal network. The judge for organized crime, Osmar Legal, ordered preventive detention for multiple defendants.
A DEA assessment of the Puebla-Tlaxcala corridor identified active operations by both CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel, with Sinaloa using systematic intimidation to maintain territorial control, per Guillermo Ortega's reporting February 22.
El País published an investigation February 21 documenting that extortion and protection rackets targeting mining companies increased 16% between 2021 and 2022, generating a 3% production cost premium on top of direct security spending. A Canadian mining executive acknowledged in 2015 that his company (McEwen Mining, Sinaloa) maintained a 'good relationship' with cartels to operate.
Cartels are increasingly recruiting through digital channels — using emojis, hashtags, and narco-corrido culture to target minors on social media, per new reporting published February 22. Analysts describe an increasingly sophisticated 'digital language' designed to normalize cartel affiliation among youth.
Ecuador's security crisis drew fresh analysis on February 22 from the dean of the IAEN (Instituto de Altos Estudios Nacionales), who told Sputnik Mundo that the state has 'lost legitimacy before society.' He pointed specifically to the infiltration of former military and police members into criminal organizations and questioned whether Ecuador actually controls its own narco-policy decision-making.
Ecuador is reportedly moving forward with a large-scale prison construction project modeled on El Salvador's CECOT facility, per Centroamérica360. Colombia's Medellín is building a similar mega-prison. The regional trend toward maximum-security mass incarceration as a political signal is accelerating.
Bolivian authorities reported the seizure of 456 kilograms of liquid marijuana described as originating from the United States — an unusual trafficking direction and origin claim flagged by Contacto Sur on February 22. The seizure raised questions domestically about border security and possible institutional complicity, though those claims remain unverified.
ELEVATED. The Sinaloa Cartel's internal fracture continues to drive violence in the northwest, while CJNG expands in Puebla-Tlaxcala and Chiapas. A naval corruption scandal involving MORENA connections is the most politically sensitive new development. Watch whether the leaked audio forces institutional accountability or gets buried.
MODERATE. Extradition cooperation with the US is running at a strong pace — 12 subjects this year already. Organized crime operates at a baseline level but no acute escalation in the last 24 hours.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents in the last 24 hours. Gang activity in Belize City remains the primary baseline concern.
MODERATE. No significant new developments. Organized crime and extortion remain endemic, but no acute escalation reported in the 24-hour window.
MODERATE. The security environment is stable by recent historical standards following Bukele's gang crackdown. New US-El Salvador cooperation agreements on organized crime and migration were formalized this week, deepening the bilateral security relationship.
MODERATE. No significant security developments. The Ortega government's internal repression continues at baseline. Costa Rica is raising the issue of illegal gold mining and smuggling on the border with Nicaragua in US talks — worth watching as a potential bilateral friction point.
ELEVATED. President Chaves is escalating the government's public stance on transnational organized crime operating in the northern border zone. The shift to semi-industrial illegal mining near the Nicaraguan border signals growing criminal sophistication and territorial consolidation.
MODERATE. No acute security developments in the last 24 hours. Pacific maritime trafficking routes remain active as evidenced by Semar seizures; Panama's position on those routes warrants continued monitoring.
HIGH. Multi-front armed conflict is intensifying across Antioquia, Arauca, Guaviare, Norte de Santander, and Bolívar simultaneously. The ELN's use of explosive drones against military installations marks a capability escalation. Petro's 'Total Peace' framework is effectively broken — watch for a formal policy shift.
ELEVATED. The political environment is in slow, managed transition under US pressure. The amnesty law and Guanipa's release signal limited goodwill gestures, but the Maduro government retains power. Cuban security forces withdrawing is a structural shift in Maduro's personal protection apparatus — the security implications are significant and underappreciated.
HIGH. State legitimacy is openly questioned by senior domestic analysts. Former security personnel are joining criminal organizations. The mega-prison strategy may suppress symptoms without addressing the institutional rot driving the crisis.
ELEVATED. President Boluarte was removed from office, per reporting this week confirming Peru's ongoing institutional collapse. The country is cycling through leaders faster than it can stabilize governance. Organized crime benefits from every institutional disruption.
MODERATE. The seizure of US-origin liquid marijuana is an anomaly that deserves follow-up. Political tensions between Arce and Morales factions continue to distract from governance. No acute violence reported.
ELEVATED. No major new operational incidents in the 24-hour window. Organized crime networks — particularly in Rio — remain active at a high baseline. Trump's posture toward Latin American cartels, including potential military operations, creates an external variable for Brazilian law enforcement dynamics.
ELEVATED. Operation Nexus 2 demonstrates active law enforcement pressure on Marset-linked networks, but the connections to international crime (Colombia, Brazil) show Paraguay remains a key node. Prison-based criminal coordination was directly targeted in this operation.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents in the last 24 hours. Organized crime pressure from Brazil and Paraguay continues at baseline levels.
ELEVATED. The labor reform passage and general strike represent the sharpest domestic political rupture under Milei. Street violence near Congress is contained for now, but the CGT is energized. Watch for escalating protest cycles as economic indicators continue to decline.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents in the last 24 hours. Migration-linked crime on the northern border remains the primary baseline concern.
CRITICAL. Fuel rationing has effectively collapsed public transportation. Hospitals lack medicine. The repressive apparatus remains functional while everything else deteriorates. Cuban security forces are withdrawing from Venezuela. The combination of economic collapse and reduced external security commitments creates conditions for potential internal instability — the most acute crisis on the island in decades.
HIGH. No new specific incidents in the 24-hour window, but gang control over Port-au-Prince and surrounding areas remains extensive. The political transition process is fragile. Haiti continues to function as a warning case for what Cuba could become if state services collapse further.
MODERATE. Tourism is surging — the DR is absorbing regional visitors including from Cuba and Haiti. No significant security incidents. The country is benefiting from Cuba's collapse as a travel diversion point.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents in the last 24 hours. Oil revenue-driven growth continues. Venezuelan spillover and border trafficking remain the primary watch items.
**Colombia's drone escalation is the number one thing to watch this week.** The ELN attacking a military cantonment in Saravena with explosive drones is not a one-off — it follows a pattern of armed groups in the region testing new offensive capabilities against fixed military targets. If drone attacks on Colombian bases become routine, the Army's forward-deployed posture in Arauca becomes untenable without significant air defense upgrades. The Petro government has no viable ceasefire framework left with the ELN right now, and the Clan del Golfo negotiations are in suspension. That's a two-front conflict with no diplomatic off-ramp in sight.
**Cuba's withdrawal of security personnel from Venezuela is being underreported.** For years, Cuban intelligence and security forces embedded in Venezuela were the backstop for Maduro's personal protection and internal surveillance. Their departure — even partial — creates a real vulnerability in Maduro's security architecture at the exact moment the US is applying maximum economic and diplomatic pressure. Watch whether Venezuelan military factions sense an opening. The amnesty law and Guanipa's release suggest Maduro is trying to manage opposition tensions carefully, but losing the Cuban security layer while doing so is a significant liability.
**Mexico's naval corruption scandal has legs if it isn't suppressed.** Leaked audio implicating top Semar officials in fuel theft and smuggling, with alleged MORENA connections, lands at a moment when the Sheinbaum government is trying to project security credibility. The Navy has been one of the few Mexican institutions with a relatively clean reputation in counter-narcotics. If those recordings are authenticated and publicized, it complicates US-Mexico security cooperation at exactly the moment Washington is watching Mexico most closely. Decision-makers with operations in Mexico should factor in the possibility of institutional turbulence in the naval command.
**Argentina's labor unrest won't fade after this vote.** The CGT is reporting the biggest strike participation of the Milei era, the reform still has to survive the legislative process fully, and the economic data — 21,000+ company closures, contracting manufacturing — gives unions fresh material every week. What's worth watching is whether protest energy stays in the streets or starts producing political coalition-building in Congress that could actually threaten Milei's agenda. The social pressure is real; the political arithmetic is still in Milei's favor for now, but that window could close faster than markets are pricing in.
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