Peru is now on its eighth president in a decade after Congress removed interim leader José Jerí on corruption charges, installing José Balcazar with April elections just weeks away. Argentina launched a nationwide general strike today against Milei's labor reforms, and the government's warning to journalists not to cover the protests is a red flag for press freedom. Venezuela's post-Maduro transition is moving fast on oil — but the detention and release of an 86-year-old U.S. oil consultant shows the legal environment for investors remains unpredictable.
Peru's Congress voted Tuesday to remove interim President José Jerí from office on corruption charges, invoking the constitutional 'moral incapacity' clause. This is the same mechanism used to oust several of his predecessors. Peru is now on its eighth president in a decade.
Congress has installed José Balcazar as the new interim president, per Reuters reporting from Wednesday morning. Balcazar inherits a government with roughly six weeks until the April presidential and congressional elections — barely enough time to stabilize the executive branch, let alone run a campaign.
Jerí's ouster follows the October 2025 removal of Dina Boluarte and comes as Peru's Petroperu workers launched a 72-hour strike Monday to protest privatization plans. The company says operations are normal, but the government declared the walkout illegal.
Peru is the world's third-largest copper producer. Reuters notes the economy has shown resilience to political shocks, with solid growth last year — but investor confidence in governance is a separate question from macroeconomic data.
A nationwide general strike kicked off today, February 19, protesting President Javier Milei's proposed labor reforms. The contested measures would make it easier to hire and fire workers, reduce severance pay, limit strike rights, increase working hours, and cut holiday provisions.
Milei's government issued an unusual statement Tuesday warning journalists about the 'risk' of covering protests and announced an 'exclusive zone' from which press must operate. The Security Ministry added: 'In the event of acts of violence, our forces will act.' Press freedom watchdogs condemned the measure.
Nearly 40 percent of Argentina's workforce lacks formal employment contracts, according to Buenos Aires Times. Union leaders say the reforms will deepen precarity. The government frames them as necessary modernization.
Venezuela released 86-year-old U.S. oil industry consultant Nelson Hernández after four days in detention, following significant diplomatic pressure. Bloomberg reported on the case as a marker of the legal risks still facing investors despite the new Washington-backed administration in Caracas.
The post-Maduro transitional government is moving to reopen Venezuela's oil sector to foreign investment. U.S.-controlled proceeds from seized Venezuelan oil tankers have already been transferred back to Venezuela, per reporting, and will be subject to audit once oversight mechanisms are in place.
Major oil companies remain cautious. Multiple analysts note that state-sponsored investment guarantees place financial risk on taxpayers, and questions about transparency in military and security budget allocations remain unresolved under the transitional framework.
Ecuadorian police arrested Guayaquil Mayor Aquiles Álvarez and 10 associates on charges of organized crime, money laundering, and tax fraud connected to an alleged fuel smuggling scheme, per On the Radar reporting from Wednesday.
Separately, Ecuador's military captured nine FARC dissident members near the Colombian border and seized what authorities described as a high-powered arsenal. The operation targeted a wooden structure believed to be a clandestine base, according to La República. The suspects are linked to the Oliver Sinisterra Front.
The Council on Foreign Relations published a fresh assessment warning that Colombia's security forces risk being overwhelmed if the three major armed groups — the ELN (approx. 6,000 members), FARC dissidents (approx. 5,000), and Clan del Golfo (approx. 7,500) — continue expanding territorial control.
The CFR assessment flags systematic targeting of demobilized former combatants as a particular flashpoint. Peace process gains from prior years are at risk if the government cannot protect ex-combatants who disarmed under earlier accords.
Brazil filed an extradition request for Alexandre Ramagem, former chief of the Brazilian Intelligence Agency (ABIN) under Bolsonaro, now in exile in Florida. Brazilian authorities identified Ramagem as part of the 'crucial core' of the 2023 coup plot designed to keep Bolsonaro in power.
Ramagem was also separately sentenced in Brazil for using ABIN's intelligence tools to illegally surveil Bolsonaro opponents, including politicians, journalists, and artists. Whether the U.S. will honor the extradition request remains to be seen given current political dynamics in Washington.
A fifth defendant was convicted in a U.S. federal case involving a Sinaloa cartel-linked methamphetamine distribution ring in Minnesota. The DOJ said the nearly year-long investigation netted roughly 60 pounds of meth, 1,500 fentanyl pills, and over $20,000 in cash.
Brookings published a detailed analysis Wednesday on cartel drone use, noting CJNG flew an explosive-laden drone into the Tijuana state prosecutor's compound in October 2025. The report describes current large-scale aerial drug trafficking by drone as inefficient, but warns capabilities are evolving rapidly.
Ciudad Juárez ranked 17th most violent city in the world according to a new survey, citing peak fentanyl trafficking, migrant smuggling competition, and a resurgent remnant of the old Juárez cartel attempting to reclaim lost territory.
ATF announced the seizure of thousands of illegal firearms bound for cartels in Mexico, in an operation focused on dismantling arms trafficking pipelines feeding cartel violence.
Chile announced it will temporarily close the Paso Internacional Los Libertadores — the main border crossing with Argentina — starting today, February 19, after detecting a possible Aedes aegypti mosquito specimen. The species transmits dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. Chile has largely been free of established Aedes aegypti populations.
The closure is precautionary, but it affects one of the busiest land trade and transit corridors between the two countries. No timeline for reopening has been given.
El Salvador's CECOT mega-prison continues to receive U.S.-deported alleged gang members under the agreement Secretary Rubio called 'the most unprecedented and extraordinary migratory agreement anywhere in the world.' As of mid-March 2025, 300 alleged Tren de Aragua members had been transferred under this arrangement.
Guatemala is showing signs of following El Salvador's model. President Arévalo has shifted toward tougher security postures, reflecting the broader regional trend toward iron-fisted anti-gang policy seen in El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Chile.
U.S. Southern Command announced additional strikes on alleged drug trafficking vessels in Latin American waters, killing 11 people across three boats, per Bull Source reporting. SOUTHCOM cited unspecified intelligence. The operations are part of the ongoing campaign in remote Caribbean and Pacific waters.
The strikes are drawing continued international criticism. Foreign Policy noted that Mexico, Brazil, and Italy have been the most vocal critics, while right-leaning governments in Paraguay, Argentina, and Ecuador have broadly aligned with the U.S. approach. The issue was raised at a G7 foreign ministers' meeting in November 2025.
ELEVATED. Cartel fragmentation and drone-enabled violence are the defining threats. CJNG and Sinaloa factions remain in active competition across multiple states, while Juárez's ranking as one of the world's most violent cities reflects how border corridor fights have intensified. Watch for further CJNG drone attacks on government infrastructure and continued U.S. pressure on cross-border arms and drug flows.
ELEVATED. President Arévalo is hardening his security posture in response to gang pressure, moving closer to the Bukele model. Gang activity on the outskirts of Guatemala City triggered a state of emergency in January. The direction of policy is toward militarized enforcement — watch for how that affects civil liberties and whether it produces measurable results.
MODERATE. No significant developments in the last 24 hours. Baseline conditions. Gang activity in Belize City remains a chronic concern, but no acute escalation reported.
MODERATE. No significant incidents reported in the last 24 hours. The Xiomara Castro government continues to navigate tensions between security force reform and ongoing MS-13 and Barrio 18 activity, particularly in San Pedro Sula and Tegucigalpa.
ELEVATED. Bukele's CECOT prison complex continues to receive U.S.-deported gang members, cementing El Salvador's role as a regional detention hub under the bilateral agreement with Washington. The security environment inside the country remains tightly controlled — but watch for how the absorption of Tren de Aragua deportees interacts with existing MS-13 and Barrio 18 prison dynamics.
MODERATE. The Ortega government maintains tight political control and no significant security incidents were reported. The country's 'freezing' of diplomatic and civil society space continues, but organized crime activity is suppressed at a surface level by the security apparatus.
ELEVATED. Costa Rica has been adopting tougher anti-gang measures in line with regional trends. Drug transit violence, particularly tied to Sinaloa and CJNG supply chains moving through its Pacific and Caribbean ports, remains the primary threat. No acute incidents reported today.
MODERATE. No significant developments in the last 24 hours. The Darién Gap continues to be a pressure point for northbound migration, and drug transit through Panamanian waters is an ongoing concern, particularly given the nearby U.S. military interdiction campaign.
HIGH. The security picture is deteriorating. Three major armed groups — ELN, FARC dissidents, and Clan del Golfo — are all expanding territory simultaneously, and Colombia's military is under strain. Killings of demobilized combatants continue. The peace process framework is under serious pressure. Ecuador's capture of FARC dissidents near the border shows how the conflict spills across national lines.
ELEVATED. The transitional period is active and volatile. Oil sector reopening is underway but the legal environment for investors and foreign nationals is demonstrably unpredictable — the four-day detention of a U.S. oil consultant is the latest example. Watch how Washington manages the balance between pushing for oil revenue and not propping up security structures that sustained authoritarian rule.
HIGH. Two significant law enforcement actions in 24 hours: the arrest of Guayaquil's mayor on organized crime charges and the capture of FARC dissidents near the Colombian border. Ecuador's internal security environment is being shaped by both domestic political corruption and cross-border armed group infiltration. The Noboa government is under pressure on multiple fronts.
HIGH. The country just installed its eighth president in a decade. José Balcazar takes office weeks before a national election, with a Petroperu labor strike in the background and a fragile institutional environment. Political instability is the dominant threat — not armed group violence — but weak governance creates openings for organized crime, which was already expanding under Jerí.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents reported in the last 24 hours. Political tensions between Arce and Morales factions persist, and coca-growing region disputes remain a chronic low-level concern.
ELEVATED. The Ramagem extradition request marks a new phase in Brazil's accountability process for the 2023 coup plot — but Washington's response is uncertain given current U.S. political dynamics. Urban violence in Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Salvador remains at elevated baseline levels. Watch the extradition case as a bellwether for U.S.-Brazil relations under the Lula government.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents reported today. Paraguay has aligned itself with the U.S. approach on Venezuela and drug trafficking, which gives it some diplomatic cover. The Tri-Border Area with Argentina and Brazil remains a persistent organized crime concern.
MODERATE. No significant developments in the last 24 hours. Uruguay maintains the region's most stable security environment. Drug transit and port-related smuggling are ongoing low-level concerns.
ELEVATED. A general strike is underway today, the largest direct challenge yet to Milei's economic reform agenda. The government's move to restrict press coverage of protests and warn journalists of 'risk' is a significant press freedom concern. Social unrest is the primary threat vector — watch for confrontations between security forces and strikers, and whether union action escalates beyond a single day.
ELEVATED. The temporary closure of the Los Libertadores border crossing with Argentina for a dengue-related public health concern is operationally disruptive to one of South America's busiest trade corridors. On the security side, Chile has been tightening anti-gang enforcement in line with regional trends, with no acute incident reported today.
MODERATE. No significant security developments in the last 24 hours. The country faces deep economic deterioration, chronic fuel and food shortages, and ongoing emigration pressure. Social tension is elevated but organized protest has been suppressed since the July 2021 crackdowns.
CRITICAL. Gang control over large portions of Port-au-Prince and surrounding areas remains near-total in affected zones. The transitional presidential council and the Kenyan-led multinational security support mission continue to operate under severe resource and coordination constraints. Haiti remains the hemisphere's most acute ongoing security crisis even without a headline development today.
MODERATE. No significant security incidents in the last 24 hours. Migration pressure from Haiti and drug transit activity through Dominican ports are chronic concerns, but the country maintains relatively stable domestic security under the Abinader government.
MODERATE. No significant security developments in the last 24 hours. Guyana's oil boom continues to attract foreign investment and some associated crime. The border dispute with Venezuela remains technically unresolved, though tensions are lower given the current political transition in Caracas.
Peru's presidential carousel is the most immediate watch item this week. Balcazar has roughly six weeks to hold the government together before the April elections, and he has zero political mandate of his own. The risk isn't another impeachment — Congress presumably got what it wanted — but rather the possibility that April's vote produces another fragmented result, leaving whoever wins with no congressional majority and a country that has learned impeachment is a routine political tool. Investors and mining companies with exposure to Peruvian copper should be running scenario planning on post-election governance right now.
The Argentina general strike deserves close attention beyond today's headlines. Milei's labor reform push is the most politically exposed moment of his presidency so far. If unions can sustain pressure beyond a single-day strike — and if the government's hostile posture toward press coverage produces any ugly footage of force used against protesters — the political cost could be significant. Argentina's 40% informal labor rate means this isn't just a union fight; it resonates broadly. Watch whether the CGT calls for additional strike days this week.
Ecuador is quietly becoming a two-front problem. The arrest of Mayor Álvarez on organized crime charges points to state capture reaching municipal government in Guayaquil — the country's economic hub. Simultaneously, FARC dissidents are operating from clandestine bases just across the Colombian border. These two dynamics are not unrelated: where the state is corrupt at the local level, armed groups find easier operating space. Noboa has positioned himself as a tough-on-crime leader, but arresting a mayor and capturing border fighters in the same 24-hour cycle suggests the problem is wider than his security model can contain.
The U.S. military interdiction campaign in Latin American waters is a slow-burn story that could escalate. Eleven people killed on three boats in the latest round, with SOUTHCOM citing unspecified intelligence. The criticism from Mexico and Brazil is growing louder, and a case where the U.S. strikes a vessel that turns out to be civilian or contains non-combatants would become a major regional diplomatic crisis almost overnight. Businesses with regional operations should be tracking the political fallout from these strikes — particularly in Brazil, where the Lula government is already managing a complicated relationship with Washington over the extradition of Ramagem.
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