Peru's Congress removed interim President José Jerí on February 18 amid a corruption probe, marking the country's latest leadership collapse under the "moral incapacity" clause — the political crisis is accelerating with elections approaching. Venezuela's post-Maduro transition remains volatile: an American oil consultant was detained and released within four days, and Washington is now openly managing which energy companies get access to Venezuelan reserves. These two stories — Andean political instability and Venezuelan energy geopolitics — are the dominant regional threads today.
Peru's Congress voted on February 18 to remove interim President José Jerí from office, invoking the constitutional 'moral incapacity' clause amid an active corruption investigation. Jerí had served as interim head of state following the removal of his predecessor, Dina Boluarte. This is the latest in a sequence of presidential removals that has plagued Peruvian governance since 2016.
Workers at state oil company Petroperu launched a 72-hour strike on Monday to protest a government plan to privatize portions of the firm. The company said operations remained normal and the government declared the strike illegal. The privatization push signals a broader policy direction from Lima, but labor opposition is stiffening.
Peru now faces the challenge of a third executive transition in recent years, with general elections still ahead. Congress has broad power to remove presidents but no clear mechanism to restore executive stability — a structural problem that has no short-term fix.
Venezuela released American oil consultant and US citizen Victor Amoedo on February 17 after four days in detention, according to Bloomberg. His arrest had drawn concern precisely because it came during active energy negotiations between the Washington-backed Caracas administration and major international oil firms.
The US lifted portions of oil sanctions last week, clearing the way for Shell and Spain's Repsol to operate in Venezuelan fields. Chevron is reportedly preparing to double its production in-country. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright visited Caracas on February 11 — the highest-ranking American official to do so since US special forces captured Nicolás Maduro on January 3.
Trump publicly stated the US took oil from seized Venezuelan tankers for processing in American refineries and said Washington will decide which major companies gain access to Venezuelan reserves. The El País English edition describes the current arrangement as a 'cohabitation' between the Chavista apparatus and MAGA-aligned forces — not a clean transition.
A new poll cited in OSINT finds 7 in 10 Venezuelans say the country is moving in the right direction since Maduro's removal, and a majority wants elections in 2026. Felix Plasencia has been named Venezuela's diplomatic representative to Washington.
A cartel shootout in Matamoros, Tamaulipas spread panic through the border city in the last 48 hours, according to Breitbart's Cartel Chronicles. Local and state politicians moved quickly to minimize the incident publicly — a pattern that security analysts have documented repeatedly along the Tamaulipas corridor.
Ciudad Juárez ranked 17th most violent city in the world in a new global survey, published February 16-17 across multiple US outlets. The survey cited peak fentanyl trafficking, migration corridor competition, and a resurgent Juárez Cartel attempting to retake ground it lost a decade ago as the main drivers.
CBP officers at the Laredo Port of Entry seized over $602,000 worth of methamphetamine at the Colombia-Solidarity Bridge, CBP announced approximately 15 hours ago. The seizure is operationally routine but reflects ongoing northbound meth flows through the Texas border corridor.
A Council on Foreign Relations assessment published today warns that Colombia's security forces risk being overwhelmed if three major armed groups continue their territorial expansion. The ELN has approximately 6,000 members, FARC dissidents around 5,000, and the Clan del Golfo roughly 7,500 — all are actively growing their footprints.
The CFR report specifically flags the systematic targeting of demobilized former FARC combatants as a destabilizing factor. Reintegration program participants being killed erodes any incentive for future peace processes and signals the armed groups are deliberately dismantling the peace architecture.
An El País English report published in the last 24 hours spotlights the indictment of nine US citizens in the United States for purchasing and trafficking high-caliber weapons that ended up in the hands of criminal organizations south of the border — a direct supply chain problem for Ecuador's gang crisis.
A separate analysis notes Ecuador has posted the highest homicide rate in Latin America for three consecutive years, with gang-related fatalities rising more than 40% in 2025. A trade dispute with Colombia adds an economic pressure layer to an already strained security environment.
Guatemala lifted its one-month state of emergency on approximately February 17, according to AP. President Arévalo's government reported 83 gang arrests and claimed a 50% reduction in homicides and 33% drop in extortion cases during the emergency period.
Guatemala is now expanding its Plan Centinela security initiative. The plan was originally launched January 6 in Escuintla, involving prison searches and demolition of unauthorized structures near detention facilities. The government is positioning Centinela as a sustained alternative to El Salvador's indefinite emergency powers model.
The emergency was triggered in January when gangs retaliated against police following the suppression of prison riots. The government's decision to lift emergency powers rather than extend them indefinitely is a deliberate political signal — Arévalo is trying to distinguish Guatemala's approach from Bukele's.
Argentine workers clashed with police in Buenos Aires on February 17 as senators debated labor reform legislation, according to AP. Security forces deployed water cannons and rubber bullets; protesters responded with rocks and Molotov cocktails.
BHP announced plans to invest up to $18.1 billion in the Vicuña copper project straddling Argentina and Chile, CNBC reported. BHP and Lundin Mining are co-developing the project, which is one of four global mega-projects BHP is advancing. The investment timeline stretches over the next decade and could significantly reshape Argentina's mining sector.
Costa Rica's Ministry of Public Security published a map flagging illegal mining activity in Costa Rican territory adjacent to the Nicaraguan border, according to Centroamérica360. The report links the activity to Chinese mining concessions granted by Managua in Nicaraguan territory, with environmental and migration spillover into Costa Rica.
The situation adds a transboundary resource conflict dimension to the already tense Costa Rica-Nicaragua relationship, which has historically centered on border demarcation and river rights.
No new major security incidents in the last 24 hours. El Salvador's state of emergency — now nearly four years old — continues under monthly congressional renewal. The contrast with Guatemala's decision to lift its own emergency powers after 30 days is drawing regional commentary.
ELEVATED. The Matamoros shootout and Juárez's top-20 global violence ranking reflect ongoing cartel territorial competition, particularly along the Tamaulipas and Chihuahua corridors. Political pressure to downplay cartel violence remains a consistent obstacle to accurate threat assessment. Watch for further Gulf Cartel vs. CDN clashes in Tamaulipas over the next week.
MODERATE. The lifting of emergency powers signals a return to baseline security operations under Plan Centinela. Gang retaliation threats remain real — the January prison riot response showed gangs will target police directly. Watch whether homicide numbers hold after emergency pressure is removed.
MODERATE. No significant developments in the last 24 hours. Baseline conditions persist, with gang activity concentrated in Belize City and narco-transit flows along the northern and western corridors.
MODERATE. No significant developments today. The Castro government's posture toward organized crime remains inconsistent, and MS-13 and Barrio 18 activity continues at baseline levels, particularly in San Pedro Sula and Tegucigalpa.
LOW-MODERATE. Bukele's emergency powers regime has suppressed overt gang violence to historically low levels, but the structural legal and human rights risks of indefinite emergency governance are a long-term watch item. No new incidents in the last 24 hours.
ELEVATED. The Ortega government's granting of Chinese mining concessions near the Costa Rican border is generating a new transboundary friction point. Political repression of opposition and civil society continues at baseline authoritarian levels. No acute security incident today, but the mining corridor is a new flashpoint to monitor.
MODERATE. The border mining dispute with Nicaragua is the primary active concern. Domestic security conditions remain among the better in Central America, but drug transit violence in port areas and the Caribbean coast has been trending upward over the past year.
MODERATE. No significant developments today. Darién Gap migration flows continue, and the Mulino government's anti-migration measures remain in tension with humanitarian obligations. Drug transit through Pacific and Caribbean waters is the persistent baseline threat.
HIGH. All three major armed groups — ELN, FARC dissidents, and Clan del Golfo — are expanding. The deliberate targeting of demobilized combatants is a particularly dangerous trend. The Petro government's peace process framework is under serious stress. This is the most complex internal armed conflict environment in the hemisphere right now.
HIGH. The post-Maduro transition is producing a fragile and opaque governance arrangement. The detention and release of an American oil consultant in the same week as major US sanctions relief shows the environment is unpredictable even for sanctioned business activity. Energy sector risks are elevated, not reduced, by the transition.
HIGH. Three straight years as Latin America's most violent country per capita, with gang fatalities up 40%-plus in 2025. The US weapons trafficking indictments show the supply chain for gang armament runs directly through American gun markets. The Noboa government is managing a full counterinsurgency environment with limited institutional capacity.
HIGH. The removal of interim President Jerí today marks another executive collapse — Peru is now on its third or fourth president in this cycle depending on how you count. Political instability at the top cascades into weakened law enforcement, and Sendero Luminoso remnants (MOVADEF/Militarized) and drug trafficking in the VRAEM region exploit governance gaps. Elections cannot come fast enough, and even those carry uncertainty.
ELEVATED. No new developments today. The political standoff between former President Evo Morales and current President Luis Arce continues to fracture the MAS party and distract from governance. Drug transit activity through the Chapare region and along the Brazil border is the persistent security baseline.
ELEVATED. No acute incidents in the last 24 hours from OSINT. Organized crime activity by the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho in Rio and São Paulo remains at elevated baseline. The Amazon frontier continues to generate illegal mining, logging, and associated violence.
MODERATE. No significant developments today. Paraguay remains a key cocaine transit point and a hub for contraband flows into Brazil. The Triple Frontier area warrants ongoing monitoring. The Santiago Peña government has aligned with US drug enforcement posture.
MODERATE. No significant developments. Uruguay maintains the region's most stable security environment, though Montevideo has seen incremental increases in organized crime activity over the past two years linked to cocaine transit networks.
ELEVATED. The labor protest crackdown in Buenos Aires reflects the social cost of Milei's economic reforms. Police use of rubber bullets and water cannons against protesters is the immediate watch item — if the Senate passes the labor bill, expect further street mobilization. The BHP copper investment is a positive signal for Milei's economic agenda, but social tension is real.
MODERATE. No significant security developments today. The Vicuña copper project with Argentina will generate long-term economic activity in the north. Domestic security concerns remain centered on Mapuche land conflict in La Araucanía and narco-related violence in port cities.
ELEVATED. No new incidents in the last 24 hours. The Cuban economy remains in severe crisis — fuel shortages, blackouts, and food scarcity are driving continued emigration. Trump has publicly rejected a Maduro-style military intervention, reducing the near-term regime change risk but leaving the humanitarian situation unresolved.
CRITICAL. No new developments in today's OSINT, but baseline conditions remain at crisis level. The Viv Ansanm gang coalition controls large portions of Port-au-Prince. The Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support Mission has had limited impact on overall gang control. Any executive or MSS developments warrant immediate monitoring.
MODERATE. No significant developments today. The Abinader government maintains functional security institutions. Haiti border tensions — migration, gang spillover, and cross-border trade disruption — are the primary external threat vector.
MODERATE. No significant developments today. Guyana's oil boom continues to attract foreign investment but also generates governance and corruption risks. The border dispute with Venezuela remains formally frozen under ICJ proceedings, though Maduro's removal removes one flashpoint.
Peru's presidential removal today is the most immediate decision-maker concern. The 'moral incapacity' clause has now become a routine legislative weapon, not an extraordinary remedy — this means any future Peruvian executive is structurally vulnerable from day one. With elections approaching, whoever takes power next will govern under the same threat of removal. For businesses with Peruvian exposure, the Petroperu privatization conflict is the near-term operational watch: a 72-hour strike that the government has declared illegal can still escalate if workers see the interim leadership vacuum as an opening to push harder.
The Venezuela energy picture needs to be read carefully. Washington lifting sanctions and Chevron doubling production sounds like stabilization, but the detention of an American consultant — even a brief one — shows the operating environment is not being controlled by a coherent government. It is being managed by a coalition of Chavista bureaucrats, US-backed transitional figures, and competing oil interests, all with different agendas. The next round of international energy company negotiations will be the stress test. If another foreign national gets detained, or if oil infrastructure sabotage occurs, the fragile 'cohabitation' model breaks down fast.
Colombia deserves more attention than it is getting this week. The CFR's assessment that the ELN, FARC dissidents, and Clan del Golfo are all simultaneously expanding is not a nuanced analytical point — it is a straightforward warning that the Petro government's peace process may be entering terminal failure. All three groups targeting demobilized combatants is deliberate: they are trying to prevent any future peace deal by eliminating the people who already took one. Watch for increased displacement figures from the Pacific coast and Catatumbo region in the coming days.
The Ecuador-Colombia trade war combined with Ecuador's record homicide rates is a combination worth watching for regional spillover. Noboa's security crackdown has displaced gang networks rather than eliminated them — some are moving into Colombia's Pacific corridor, which is already contested. The US gun trafficking indictments (nine Americans charged) point to a supply chain problem that neither government can solve unilaterally. If the trade dispute deepens, security cooperation between Quito and Bogotá suffers, and that gap benefits the criminal networks operating across both countries.
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