Latin America Daily Security Brief

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright arrived in Caracas on February 11 to assess Venezuela's oil infrastructure, signaling accelerating normalization under the post-Maduro arrangement. Last week, Washington partially lifted sanctions blocking Shell and Repsol from operating in Venezuelan reserves, while Chevron is preparing to double its current production. EL PAÍS reports the economy is showing early signs of stabilization through oil and banking sectors.

The Pentagon released footage of U.S. forces boarding and shutting down the Veronica III, a Venezuela-linked oil tanker tracked from the Caribbean to the Indian Ocean. The tanker departed Venezuela the same day as Maduro's capture on January 3, with Washington declaring it defied Trump's quarantine order. This continues the aggressive interdiction campaign against Venezuela's illicit oil exports.

Felix Plasencia has been named Venezuela's diplomatic representative to the United States. U.S. embassy messaging emphasized Rubio's three-phase roadmap: stabilization, economic recovery and reconciliation, and transition. The cohabitation between remaining Chavista elements and MAGA-aligned forces creates governance uncertainty, though consumption and supply conditions have reportedly improved.

Cuba faces its most severe crisis since 1959 as the Trump administration bets that cutting off Venezuelan oil—previously 27,000+ barrels per day—will collapse the regime. Washington is now threatening secondary sanctions against any country that sends fuel to the island, with Mexico explicitly in the crosshairs. Power outages, food and medicine shortages, and depleted foreign currency reserves are worsening.

China's Foreign Minister Lin Jian stated Beijing "will always provide support and help to the Cuban side to the best of our ability," while Mexican President Sheinbaum warned of a potential humanitarian crisis. Portuguese authorities are evacuating tourists via Dominican Republic stopovers due to deteriorating conditions. The island's alliances are fragmenting under sustained U.S. pressure.

Salvadoran forces executed the largest maritime cocaine seizure in the country's history—6.6 metric tons intercepted in international waters. The crew included four Colombians, three Nicaraguans, two Panamanians, and one Ecuadorian, all now in custody facing prosecution. The seizure reinforces President Bukele's aggressive counter-narcotics posture and demonstrates improved regional maritime interdiction capabilities.

President Arévalo decreed a state of prevention following the expiration of a state of siege, maintaining elevated security posture to combat organized crime. The transition from siege to prevention suggests the government is attempting to balance security operations with constitutional constraints. Criminal organizations continue to pressure Guatemalan territory as a key transit corridor.

The murder of American expat hotel owner Kurt Van Dyke, 66, during a home invasion in Limón province underscores deteriorating security in Costa Rica's Caribbean coast. His girlfriend was reportedly zip-tied during the robbery. Limón province accounts for 25 percent of Costa Rica's homicides despite its smaller population.

Security analysts attribute rising crime to drug trafficking routes and organized crime penetration of beach communities. The U.S. Embassy in San José has issued guidance urging increased caution in Limón, recommending travelers avoid displaying valuables and ensure rental properties have robust security measures. Costa Rica's "pura vida" tourism brand is under strain.

Ciudad Juárez ranked as the world's 17th most violent city in new survey data, driven by fentanyl trafficking competition, migrant smuggling turf wars, and the old Juárez Cartel's efforts to reclaim territory lost a decade ago. Border Report notes transnational criminal organizations are fighting on multiple fronts simultaneously.

Mexican cartels are increasingly deploying drones for cross-border drug delivery and attacks on rivals within Mexico, according to federal reporting. CBP seized one million fentanyl pills in a single day at an Arizona border crossing, alongside methamphetamine. The Sinaloa Cartel continues operating sophisticated smuggling infrastructure including cross-border tunnels despite sustained law enforcement pressure.

The Colombian entity responsible for identifying the 135,000+ disappeared from six decades of civil conflict announced it has identified the remains of Camilo Torres, a rebel priest killed in 1966. Torres was a prominent Liberation Theology figure whose death became symbolic of the conflict's early years. The identification continues the slow truth and reconciliation process under transitional justice frameworks.

Prison deaths continue climbing despite President Noboa's security strategy, according to MarketScreener data. Bringing prisons under control remains central to Noboa's agenda as he stakes his political legacy on fighting drug trafficking and crime. Ecuador's prison system has been a flashpoint for gang violence, with rival factions using facilities as operational bases.

Guyana is positioned alongside Brazil and Argentina as a driver of South American oil production growth, with the trio expected to add over 700,000 barrels per day in 2026—more than double Venezuela's projected 300,000 bpd increase. ExxonMobil's Stabroek Block continues ramping output. Guyana's per-capita oil wealth is transforming its regional significance and attracting sustained international investment.